Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS01 KWNS 261953
SWODY1
SPC AC 261952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts remain possible late this afternoon into the
evening over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes
region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain.

...20Z Update...
Severe probabilities have been trimmed across parts of IN and
southwest lower MI, in the wake of a cold frontal passage.
Otherwise, no changes have been made. See the previous discussion
below and MCD 307 for more details.

A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across the FL
Panhandle, based on the progression of ongoing convection. See the
previous discussion below for more details regarding the threat
across the FL Peninsula and south GA.

..Dean.. 03/26/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/

...FL Panhandle and Vicinity...
A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL
and the FL Panhandle.  Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along
the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some
organization.  It is expected that the bulk of this activity will
remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization
inland.  However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this
afternoon.  After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal
convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong
storms into north FL.

...Lower MI/IN/Western OH...
A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this
morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the
day.  Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the
front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting
the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much
lightning.  Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface
coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few
strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts.  The time
period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z.

$$


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