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000
ACUS02 KWNS 160547
SWODY2
SPC AC 160545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER
MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF INDIANA/OHIO AND TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening from southern Lower Michigan into parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday morning, a negative-tile shortwave trough will extend
from MN to the mid MS Valley, and will weaken as it pivots northeast
toward the upper Great Lakes by 00Z. To the west, a broad upper
trough with move across the northern Rockies and into the northern
Plains, with an intensifying midlevel speed max to around 90 kt by
12Z Thursday over MN.

At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves from MN toward
Upper MI, with a shrinking warm sector from north to south due to an
occluded front. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will extend as far north
as lower MI through afternoon, with mid to upper 60s from AR to the
Red River. The trailing front will stall from the OH Valley to the
Ozarks, then return north over the Plains as a warm front as a
secondary low develops over the High Plains. A strong cold front
will move south across the central Plains Wednesday night, reaching
northwest TX into central OK by 12Z Thursday.

...Ohio Valley to Lower MI...
The combination of a moist pre-frontal air mass as well as heating
will lead to 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath 40-50 kt midlevel
westerlies with cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft. Initial
warm/moist advection east of the surface instability axis will
likely lead to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday morning, primarily
with little hail potential.

A greater threat of hail will occur during the peak heating hours,
with east/southeast-moving cells developing from southern Lower MI
across IN and OH. Rather veered/westerly winds will exist but may
favor wind gusts as well. A capping inversion is forecast below 700
mb, but lift along the front should support a narrow, broken line of
storms. Northern areas toward Lower MI and northern OH appear to be
more favorably positioned relative to the ejecting wave, and cell or
two may produce a tornado in that area. Coverage of storms becomes
uncertain with southward extend due to subsidence aloft in the wake
of the ejecting wave. However, a conditional risk of hail will exist
along the boundary southwestward toward the MS River.

...Central Plains/Lower MO Valley Late...
As the cold front pushes south overnight, it will meet an unstable
air mass, perhaps with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE. This moisture surge
will be aided by an increasing low-level jet, but timing of the
front is uncertain, as they typically move faster that forecast.
While capping is a concern, the increasing lift may remove CIN,
allowing for elevated storms, some of which could produce hail.
Given the favorable lapse rates aloft as well as deep-layer shear,
low hail probabilities have been added, though the risk area may
shift in subsequent outlooks.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2024

$$