582
AXPZ20 KNHC 290853
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0750 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10.5N84W to 08.5N104W.
The ITCZ continues from 08.5N104W to 09N120W to 06N129W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05.5N to 10N E of 102W, from 05.5N to 10.5N between 108W
and 128W, and from 05.5N to 08.5N between 133W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1032 mb high pressure centered near 35N141W
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Overnight satellite
scatterometer data showed moderate NW winds across the Baja
California offshore waters. Seas across these offshore waters
are 5 to 7 ft, as measured by recent satellite altimeter, except
8 to 9 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Gentle to
locally moderate breezes and moderate combined seas in mixed
swell are noted elsewhere S of 20N.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure NE of Hawaii will
drift NE and well offshore of California through mid week,
leading to a weakening pressure gradient, and diminishing winds
across the area waters. Moderate NW swell will continue across
the waters to the west of Baja California through mid week as
strong northerly winds expand across the waters offshore of
California. Seas will build to 8 to 12 ft across the outer waters
of Baja Norte early Tue, and gradually shift westward, and
increase further Tue night through Wed. Winds and seas are
expected to diminish Thu and Fri as high pressure weakens
further, ahead of an approaching cold front well to the NW.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered thunderstorms continue across the nearshore waters of
Costa Rica and across the Gulf of Panama. More numerous
thunderstorm activity has shifted well offshore of Costa Rica,
and west of 88W, aided by moderate to locally fresh S to SW
winds south of the monsoon trough that extends across the
region. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds persist across the
offshore areas, N of 10N and the monsoon trough, with moderate
combined seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional
waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is
expected across the region Wed night through Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
1032 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 35N141W
extends a broad ridge SE and S across the regional waters W of
100W. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh trade
winds south of 23N and into the tropical Pacific west of 120W,
as noted by recent satellite scatterometer data. These winds in
turn are supporting 8 to 10 ft combined seas in the same area, as
measured with recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. The
convergent trade wind flow is supporting clusters of showers and
thunderstorms near the ITCZ, generally from 06N to 10N between
108W and 128W.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will begin
to drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will
maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to
24N, and west of 122W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the
8 to 10 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are expected north of 24N through Tue, with northerly swell
offshore of Baja California Norte building to 8 to 12 ft today
through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to 130W. Looking
ahead, the high pressure will weaken late in the week ahead of a
cold front moving eastward well to the north of the region. This
will allow trade winds to diminish through late Fri, although
combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical Pacific west
of 135W.

$$
Stripling