Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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964 FXUS64 KEPZ 131716 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1116 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Generally quiet weather conditions are expected through the period, except on Thursday as a storm system across the Southwest brings a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the mountains. The winds will be light to breezy except on Wednesday where they will be breezy to low end windy ahead of the storm system. The temperatures will be above the normal excluding Thursday and Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Currently, the skies are mostly clear with just a few clouds moving diagonally while dissipating across the Sacramento Mountains. The winds are generally light to occasionally lightly breezy. For today, quiet weather conditions are expected as a ridge of high pressure builds in. There maybe some weakness in the ridge that may aide in one or two showers mainly in the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains this afternoon. However, conditions will be somewhat similar to that of yesterday. The winds will be light to breezy and skies mostly sunny to partly cloudy; thus, the high temperatures this afternoon will be near the normal for this time of the year. For tonight, any showers that develop in the mountains this afternoon should dissipate after the sun sets. Conditions will be mainly quiet with the winds on the light side. The skies will become mostly clear especially after midnight. The low temperatures on Tuesday morning will be mainly above the normal. For the rest of the period, mostly quiet weather conditions are expected except for the Mountains on Thursday. A shortwave trough of low pressure will move across the area late Thursday, bringing a chance for active weather conditions mainly to the mountains areas. As it exits to our east Thursday night, some wrap around energy will continue to bring additional showers to the aforementioned area overnight Thursday and possibly in into Friday morning. The best area that will contain instability will be in the mountains; thus, a few thunderstorms will be likely in that area. For the rest of the area, conditions will be mainly quiet. Throughout the week and the weekend, the winds will be generally light to breezy except on Wednesday where they will become breezy to low end windy ahead of this low pressure system. The temperatures will be above the normal for much of the period except on Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 VMC through forecast period under light northwest flow aloft. Surface winds much lighter than the past few days, generally 240-270 at 06-10 knots becoming VRB03KT overnight. Skies FEW- SCT120 this afternoon with greater coverage over the high terrain. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 AM MDT Mon May 13 2024 Mainly quiet weather conditions are expected today similar to that of yesterday. The winds will be light and temperatures near the normal. Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For Tuesday, conditions will be slightly drier than they will be today. The 20ft winds will be a carbon copy of today`s winds with the temperatures above the normal. Tuesday night recovery will be poor to fair. For the rest of the period, generally quiet except on Thursday where there is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. The winds will become breezy to low end windy on Wednesday ahead of a storm system. The temperatures will be above the normal on Wednesday then at and below the normal Thursday and Friday. With that said, fire weather conditions will be mainly elevated through the much of the period with Wednesday being elevated to near critical. The min RHs today will be below 15% in the lowlands and between 16 and 22% highest elevations of the mountains. The min RHs on Tuesday will decrease by 2 to 4% from what they will be today. The ventilation rates will be very good to excellent today then mainly excellent on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 89 62 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 82 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 88 57 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 84 54 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 61 42 66 45 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 84 57 87 58 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 78 51 81 53 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 87 52 90 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 84 53 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 87 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 87 51 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 90 55 95 58 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 80 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 89 56 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 85 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 87 63 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 85 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 87 52 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 86 57 90 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 84 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 73 46 77 48 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 72 46 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 71 45 76 48 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 77 49 79 50 / 10 10 10 0 Hillsboro 82 54 86 55 / 10 10 0 0 Spaceport 84 50 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 78 46 81 48 / 10 10 10 0 Hurley 82 49 85 50 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 84 52 87 53 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 81 52 83 53 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 80 52 84 54 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 84 52 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 84 53 88 56 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 84 53 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 79 53 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt