Text Products for FWS Issued by EPZ

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
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FNUS74 KEPZ 110010
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cedar Creek RX...US Forest Service Smokey Bear RD
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
610 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 MDT on April 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies and light southwest winds Thursday morning with smoke
transport likely to move down-canyon during the morning hours.
Smoke ventilation becoming Good (90000 kt-ft) by the noon time
hour with favorable upward motion and transport to the east of
the burn site.

Winds increasing Friday into the weekend with gusty southwest
afternoons and RH 10-15% creating elevated to near-critical fire
danger. No precipitation expected through mid-April.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 37.
Max humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (59800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........5      4      4      4      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............55     46     43     41     39     39
RH..............23     32     32     34     35     35
20 ft wind......NW 5   NW 3   NW 3   W 3    W 3    W 3
20 ft wind gust.9      5      5      8      6      6
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   3900   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..NW 8   NW 8   NW 10  NW 10  NW 9   NW 9
Haines index....3      4      4      4      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..60     60     5      5      4      4
Ventrate Cat....FAIR   FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast around 6 mph
                    late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (97400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      4      1      3      3      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............37     42     54     63     64     65
RH..............38     37     27     20     17     16
20 ft wind......SW 4   SW 4   SE 6   SW 9   SW 9   SW 10
20 ft wind gust.5      5      9      16     16     16
Mix hgt (ft)....2000   2000   7600   7600   7700   7700
Transport wind..SW 8   SW 8   W 12   W 12   W 14   W 14
Haines index....3      3      3      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16     16     90     90     97     97
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 7 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light, then becoming southwest
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (61300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........5         5         10        11
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............64        51        47        45
RH..............15        26        27        28
20 FT wind......SW 7G14   SW 4G8    SW 4G8    SW 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....5600      5600      500       500
Transport wind..W 11      W 11      SW 11     SW 12
Haines index....4         5         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..61        61        6         6
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      POOR      POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 22 mph shifting to the south
                    around 26 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (30000 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (224500 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........14           20           36
Weather cov.....NONE         NONE         NONE
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........NONE         NONE         NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............44           61           73
RH..............29           20           14
20 FT wind......SW 6G13      S 9G20       S 13G28
Mix hgt (ft)....2100         11100        11700
Transport wind..SW 14        SW 22        S 26
Haines index....5            4            5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30           225          260
Ventrate Cat....POOR         EXNT         EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Southwest winds around 13 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 60s.
Southwest winds around 16 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Southwest winds around 18 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Sean Donaldson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410343.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sean.donaldson@usda.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
