015
FXUS64 KEWX 111846
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
146 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Messy setup in place within the short term. Initial showers and
perhaps isolated generic thunderstorms are probably to establish
across the coastal plains from the afternoon into this evening
thanks to the influence of a warm front starting to lift northward
towards our area. Later this evening also needs to see possible
attention towards the west-northwest where isolated thunderstorm
activity that establishes across the Trans-Pecos and across the
higher terrain of Mexico with daytime heating has the chance to
advance eastward across the Edwards Plateau and/or across the Rio
Grande. These individual cells are the most concerned round for
stronger cells. If a cell is able to become severe, large hail
should be the primary concern followed by strong damaging winds.
Then comes out greatest chances for rainfall during the overnight
into/though Sunday morning, as showers and generic thunderstorms
likely blossom across the central and northern portions of our
region as the best lift arrives with the closest approach of the
upper low passing to our north. This activity pivots north and
northeastward later in the day Sunday, bringing more widespread
rainfall and the better potential for a cell to go severe during
daytime heating across the FWD and HGX CWAs. The second half of
Mother`s Day and Mother`s Day evening currently looks to trend
better than Mother`s Day morning.

Humidity will continue to rebound in the short term as south to
southeasterly winds return behind the warm front. Temperatures
during this afternoon hold within the 80s for majority of the
region. The overnight lows tonight are to trend from the mid to
upper 60s into the low 70s across the region. Tomorrow trends
warmer, especially farther west where the 90s will become more
common with the drier forecast and where some sun could peak
through. Overnight lows entering early Monday bottom out around
the low to mid 70s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Precipitation chances will continue through Monday as an upper level
low moves through the central Plains, bringing an associated weak
cold front through south-central Texas. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through the morning hours ahead of
the front as upper level lift begins to increase. Then, the front
should arrive during the afternoon with scattered thunderstorm
development along it. This activity will then push east into the
overnight hours. While low level shear is expected to be weak ahead
of the front, wind speeds quickly increase aloft with long and
straight hodographs depicted in forecast soundings. Instability will
be more than sufficient as well, with dewpoints near 70F and
afternoon temperatures warming into the upper 80s to near 90F.
Therefore, a level 1-2/5 risk for severe thunderstorms is in place
across much of south-central Texas due to the threat for large hail
and damaging wind gusts. The greatest threat will be with the
afternoon storms along the front from the eastern Hill Country
through the Coastal Plains.

Fair weather is then expected Tuesday through the first half of
Wednesday as weak upper level ridging builds in behind the departing
upper low. Attention then turns towards a west coast trough that
will push east into the Plains late Wednesday through Thursday. This
trough will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to much
of the southern Plains with potential for severe thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall as well. As of now the greatest coverage of storms
and therefore the greatest heavy rain threat appears to be closer
towards the Red River, though localized heavy rainfall will be
possible with any storm across our area due to high PWATs. The area
with the greatest severe threat is still being ironed out, though an
SPC risk will likely be introduced in the coming days.

There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper level
pattern behind this system, though a trend towards drier
and warmer conditions is currently expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR flight conditions are to prevail into the early evening before
conditions deteriorate. Shower and storm chances will develop later
this evening and should peak overnight into Sunday morning. These
then decline into and through Sunday afternoon as majority of rain
and storm advances north and east. Into the overnight and early
Sunday morning period, have elected to go with prevailing -SHRA and
some PROB30 groups with -TSRA. Uncertainty remains on timing and
placement of activity, and this will continue to be refined during
the period. In addition to the rain shower and convective potential,
MVFR to IFR ceilings will be expected to develop. Some visibility
reductions also will be possible with any showers or storms. Later
Sunday afternoon, expect for the 30 hr TAF sites to improve back
towards VFR levels. The winds will shift from easterly to more
southeasterly with time through the period as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              68  83  73  87 /  50  60  20  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  83  72  86 /  50  60  20  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  87  73  89 /  50  40  20  40
Burnet Muni Airport            67  81  70  86 /  50  70  20  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  94  73 100 /  50  20  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  80  72  85 /  40  70  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             70  88  73  92 /  50  30  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  84  73  87 /  50  40  20  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  83  74  85 /  40  60  30  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  87  74  90 /  50  30  10  40
Stinson Muni Airport           71  88  75  90 /  40  30  10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...Brady