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000
FXUS62 KFFC 170547
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
147 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

No changes were made to the forecast except to account for ongoing
trends of lower RHs in the northwest and temps higher than
initially forecasted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

500mb analysis shows a shortwave ridge across the Gulf States.
The mid level ridging may begin to break down and become more
zonal tomorrow as a low moves into the Great Lakes and a trough
moves into the Ohio Valley. At the surface, high pressure will
continue through the overnight hours. A frontal boundary/outflow
will approach from the west tomorrow and potentially into
northwest portions of the CWA by late afternoon. The boundary will
then continue into central portions of the state, likely
stalling/dissipating late tomorrow night.

Hi-res models are producing a broken line of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the CWA
tomorrow afternoon/evening along the outflow/surface boundary. The
line dissipates/weakens as it pushes south of I-20. The models
keep the coverage of storms with this system fairly low, but are
indicating some potential for stronger thunderstorms. This seems
reasonable, if only for the fact the line is coming through close
to peak heating. If lapse rates steepen as the line moves through,
then the potential for strong/isold severe storms could increase.
The shear remains weak.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday morning through next Monday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The flow aloft will be characterized by quasi-zonal flow over the
Southeast while a closed low over south-central Canada on
Thursday shifts eastward and opens up to a trough over southeast
Canada on Saturday. The trough axis is progged to shift offshore
over the northwestern Atlantic Sunday into Monday, driving a cold
front across the forecast area as high pressure settles in.

Intermittent perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow will bring
influxes of moisture and a source of lift across the forecast
area, resulting in daily chances (25% to 55%) for showers Friday
through Sunday. Ensemble guidance is progging around 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE on Friday with less than 1000 J/kg on Saturday and Sunday,
so there is also a chance (25% to 35%) for thunderstorms as well.
Surface-to-500-mb bulk shear is progged to generally be weak
enough (40 kts or less) to preclude development of severe
thunderstorms. The QPF continues to look unimpressive with less
than 0.75" expected in general.

PoPs will taper off from west to east on Monday as the cold front
passes through, ushering in a dry, continental air mass and
attendant high pressure. Noticeably cooler air will move in from
northwest to southeast over the course of Saturday night through
Monday afternoon.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Upper level clouds will persist across north and portions of
central Georgia through much of the day, and will gradually lower
this afternoon. VFR ceilings around 060-070 are anticipated by 22Z
ahead of a line of showers approaching from the north. -SHRA is
anticipated from 23-03Z at the ATL sites as the showers advance
through the area. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but at
this time, confidence is too low to warrant mention of thunder in
the TAFs. Winds will be nearly due S at 3-6 kts in the early
morning, shifting to SW after sunrise. Winds will increase through
the early afternoon until peaking at 9-12 kts with gusts of 18-22
kts in the mid to late afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on the timing of precipitation.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  88  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
Atlanta         61  86  65  84 /  30  10  20  40
Blairsville     56  84  59  76 /  30  10  40  60
Cartersville    59  87  63  83 /  30  10  40  50
Columbus        63  87  66  89 /  10  10  10  20
Gainesville     61  86  64  82 /  30  10  30  40
Macon           63  88  65  89 /  20  10  10  20
Rome            59  85  63  82 /  30  20  50  60
Peachtree City  60  87  65  86 /  20  10  20  30
Vidalia         64  89  66  91 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...King