Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 221945
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
245 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND WHAT HAPPENS AS THE
NEXT WAVE OVER WYOMING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE/TUE
NIGHT. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE PCPN CHANCES
SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR WHAT WE HAVE HAD GOING. AS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY. THE STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO SW
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
ARE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SD...AND THESE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD UP INTO THIS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE. LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN FA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS
THERE. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO PICK ON TUE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE THICKER CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER THERE.
AMERICAN MODELS LOOK DRIER NOW IN REGARD TO ANY LIGHT PCPN ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS STILL
LOOKING PRETTY DRY. FOR NOW MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE MN FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA ON WED WITH 500MB RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QUIET AND WARM
WEATHER WED INTO THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING STRONG
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 12Z RUNS ARE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING DRY
NOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CLEAR SKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAYBE SOME CIRRUS TUESDAY MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING GUSTY LATER ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...TG





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