Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Issued at 1149 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

No significant updates planned during this late evening period.
An updated Aviation Discussion is attached below.

UPDATE Issued at 955 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Have lowered min temps a degree or three across the area as
cold advection and radiative cooling should be in play through
the late evening and overnight periods. Current west winds are
tapering off and likely to go fairly light and variable before
southerly return flow kicks in later in the morning.

UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

No significant forecast updates needed this early evening. An
updated Aviation Discussion is attached below.

Otherwise, low clouds have cleared most all of northwest MN...
west of a Baudette to Cass Lake... as surface High Pressure in
centered over the Red River Basin. Winds should become light a
variable for a bit overnight allowing for a fair amount of
radiative cooling. Winds do start to increase from the south over
eastern ND in the early morning... with warm frontal passage and
increased southerly flow overspreading northwest and west central
MN throughout the day on Wednesday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Northwest winds continue to decrease this afternoon, and that
trend will continue into tonight. There are a couple of bands of
clouds and flurries, one around Devils Lake and another over
northwest Minnesota. Expect the one over northwest Minnesota to
continue to move eastward, but may linger with a few flurries
through sunset. There has been some steady light snow coming off
the Lake of the Woods into the Baudette area, but that should end
by sunset too.

After that looking for a quiet period until mid Wednesday
morning, when the next band of light snow will begin to move into
the northwest FA. This band of light snow is expected to track
mainly from the northern Red River Valley into northwest
Minnesota, which remains further north of what the models showed
the past few days. This means more snow and less of a freezing
pcpn threat. Not expecting much wind as this moves through, so no
issues from that. If the pcpn moves through quicker than expected,
there would be an even lower freezing pcpn threat. For the past
couple of events, when we have expected a dusting of snow, it has
turned out to be mainly flurries, so leaning at this point to a
lower impact event with this. Not saying there will not be any
mixed pcpn, but the next shifts can take another look at it too.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Thu and Fri...High pressure over the Northern Plains will make
for a quiet and seasonably cold Thanksgiving day. The main
question would be how mild it might get along our border with BIS
as a more SW wind along this area could mix down some of the 850
mb warmth. For post-holiday travel, the main concern is strong
winds and precipitation chances Thursday night through Friday
night. A clipper system is likely to remain north of the
International border during this time dragging a cold front
through the forecast area Fri morning into the early afternoon.
Confidence is high that strong pressure gradient winds and low
level jet will yield breezy conditions Fri, especially afternoon
and early eve after FROPA. Linkage and direction not the best for
higher winds along the valley but better farther west over Devils
Lake and perhaps SE North Dakota. Impacts though will be minimized
by a dearth of pcpn during the time of increased wind speeds.
Milder air (especially as winds go SW to W ahead of front) will
yield a pcpn type of rain with perhaps a change to snow before
ending later east of the valley.

Sat-Tue...Winds will dissipate during Sat as high pressure
begins to build in from Manitoba. Expect colder but near seasonal
weather Saturday and Sunday, behind Friday night`s cold front.
Lows will drop to the teens Sat night, then a bit milder 24 hours
later as return flow kicks in. By Tue, pcpn chances will return as
upper level ridging breaks down in the West and a hybrid
system/upper low heads our way.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Updated at 1149 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Generally VFR conditions should continue overnight with fair
skies and diminishing northwest winds. Winds will continue to
diminish and turn light and variable during the overnight.. then
increase from the south throughout the coming day. Areas of MVFR
CIGS and VSBYS are expected from late forenoon into the afternoon
midday... mainly along and north of the Highway 200 corridor...
along with areas of very light snow.




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