Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 150539

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1139 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The snow continues to look rather unorganized, with visibilities
above three miles. Wind gusts have also been up to around 30 mph
already with no significant reductions in visibility yet. Wind
speeds should rise a little more overnight, and with some falling
snow may be able to drop visibilities more. Dropped snow amounts a
little more, with not much happening yet.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

The warmth today didnt disappoint with 40s for highs from
Wahpeton to Bemidji with mid to upper 30s over NE ND/NW MN. This
will come crashing to a halt as a cold front drops south tonight.
Overall precipitation behind the front is a tad weaker as once
piece of energy and higher snowfall moves east thru parts of S
Manitoba late aftn/early eve and another higher qpf area is in NW
ND. Trend too is for the snow in Manitoba/Saskatchewan to weaken
some in intensity as it drops south into E ND/NW MN overnight/Thu
AM. Based on input from WPC and using blended model qpf/snow
ratios 1-2 inches is the most likely outcome NE ND/NW MN with less
than 1 inch south...least in the far south. Winds will increase
overnight and be strongest in the Thu AM period with gusts 30-35
kts in the RRV. Blowing snow issue is there for the AM commute but
how poor the impacts are is a bit uncertain. Chance we get way
less snow and with many fields bare it would be more dirt vs snow.
Falling temps Thursday with wind chills in the aftn 15 to 30

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Gusty winds Thursday evening will lessen bringing an end to blowing
snow potential. As the center of a high pressure moves south of the
region, winds back towards the west but remain breezy. This wind
should prevent maximum radiational cooling despite clear skies from
ridging aloft within a cold air mass Thursday night. However, breezy
winds will combine with overnight temperatures below zero to create
wind chills colder than -20 F possibly warranting hazardous wind
chill headlines into Friday morning. Temperatures quickly rebound
Friday with warm air advection expected ahead of an approaching wave
pushing high temperatures into the teens above zero. The approaching
wave will allow for breezy southwesterly winds to build Friday
afternoon possibly leading to additional patchy blowing/drifting
snow. A weak cold moves through late Friday into early Saturday
bringing a some chance of light snow. Effective mixing and low level
cold air advection behind the front will again harness elevated
winds out of the northwest during the day Saturday.

Upper level troughing begins to form over the western CONUS late
this weekend into next week. This will allow for zonal flow to build
over the Northern Plains around Sunday during its initial transition.
Both ensemble and deterministic guidance suggests a second, stronger
wave embedded within this flow to move out of the Pacific Northwest
into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. This wave will create a
surface low moving west to east across the region providing
snow/precipitation chances and possibly a fluctuation of
temperatures back to briefly above normal. As of now, the low looks
to move through Sunday. Run to run consistency is lacking in terms
of placement of precipitation with a trend to continue pushing
chances further south towards North/South Dakota border. With a
western trough building, this places the CWA under the influence of
southwest flow. Where the trough axis sets up will determine
additional precipitation chances from shortwaves riding within the
flow. This will also determine the temperature trend going into next
week. Thus the forecast reflects an extended period of broad, small
precipitation chances to last through early next week with below
average temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Winds are shifting around to the north and increasing, but not
seeing much reduction to vsby yet. Speeds will increase even more
overnight, which may be enough with the light falling snow to
cause some BLSN. Confidence not too high though. Without falling
snow, vsbys by mid Thursday morning should rise again. Winds
decrease by later afternoon.




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