Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 290452
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOING FCST OK. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND INCOMING MODEL DATA THINK
ANY RISK OF -SN/IP MIX IS VERY VERY LOW AND SO REMOVED. OTHERWISE
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. PCPN AMOUNTS FROM HPC MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH AS
CLOUD BASES REMAIN PRETTY HIGH. BUT ANYTHING IS BETTER THAN
NOTHING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN/TYPE/PHASE...WIND AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND USED A BLEND MAINLY WITH WIND SPEEDS.

POTENT SHORT WAVE CROSSING NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL CROSS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. PREFRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD BE ALONG
WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS BORDER AREA AROUND 00Z WITH COLD FRONT
CATCHING UP LATER TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL THEN NEARLY BE THROUGH
THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BASED ON HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHRA ALONG
BOUNDARY SHOULD REACH WESTERN FA BY MID EVENING AND THE VALLEY BY
MIDNIGHT...CONTINUING EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
APPROACH AN INCH LATER TONIGHT SO COULD SEE SOME MODERATE BUT LIKELY
SPOTTY RAIN AMOUNTS. SHOWALTER INDICES APPROACH ZERO OVER WEST
CENTRAL MN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE. WHILE MODELS NOT
INDICATING ANY ELEVATED CAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
LTG STRIKES HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT INTO
FORECAST. AS COLUMN COOLS LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX HOWEVER NO ACCUMS EXPECTED AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOR
THE MOST PART BE AT OR ABOVE FREEZING.

WIND WILL BE A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG/RISE FALL
SURFACE PRESSURE COUPLET ALONG WITH PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION AND
30-40+ KTS THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED LAYER WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS. WINDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER DVL BASIN SPREADING EAST
DURING THE EARLY AM. SUFFICIENT WIND EXPECTED TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS ALL BUT THE MORE WOODED AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN
FA. THERMAL ADVECTION NOT LONG LIVED AND WITH CLEARING IN WAKE OF
CFP SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SEE SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
CLOSE TO FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CROSS FA ON MONDAY AND MODELS BECOMING A LITTLE
CLOSER ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL PCPN...ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FA. MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON BETTER
MODEL AGREEMENT. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
BUT COLUMN FAIRLY MILD.

COLUMN A BIT COOLER TUESDAY BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL RANGE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD
FROM THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN SWITCH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...
USHERING IN COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MAINLY SOUTH OR NORTH OF
THE REGION...LEAVING THE AREA WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE LOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE
GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WA/OR COAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...FAVORING A WARMER
SATURDAY. CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS (OR
EVEN IFR) ON THE BACKEDGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST. SEEING AN AERA OF MIXED IFR/MVFR CIGS UPSTREAM IN SE
SASK AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST SO KEPT IDEA OF SOME LOWER
CIGS BUT NOT AS LONG AS SOME MODEL MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE ISSUE
WILL BE WIND. SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE RRV IN THAT 10-12Z PERIOD THEN BJI AREA BY 15Z. LOOK
FOR A PERIOD OF 25-40 KT WINDS SUNDAY MID MORNING TO MID
AFTN...LESSER IN THE MN TREES.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-
     008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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