379
FXUS63 KFGF 010718
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
218 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic bouts of rain continue for the next 7 days, with the
  next one set to arrive tonight, continuing through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

The current rain event is slowly winding down. Most of its
lingering effects will be across northwest Minnesota through mid
morning. This brought a widespread rainfall of at least a
quarter inch, with a few spots around 0.75 inch just south of
the Devils Lake region. The lightest amounts (a few hundredths
so far) have been along the Canadian border from Pembina toward
Langdon. The surface low at 2 am was located between Bemidji
and Park Rapids, pretty close to the position of the 700mb wave.
As this wave lifts into southwest Ontario this morning, the
rain will slowly taper off. There will be a bit of break until
the next system arrives tonight. During this pause between
systems, the big question is whether the sun will show itself.
Current guidance shows that most of the area should see at least
a few hours of sun, although it may take most of the day to get
to the Lake of the Woods region.

As mentioned above, the next round of rain arrives tonight west
of the Red River Valley, covers the entire FA on Thursday, and
may linger along/north of the highway 2 corridor Thursday night
into Friday. At this time yesterday, it had appeared like there
would be two areas of precipitation tonight into Thursday, one
over central and eastern North Dakota and the other brushing our
west central Minnesota counties. In between these areas,
basically from the southern Valley up into northwest Minnesota,
it had some interconnected lighter rain. Now it appears the two
areas could be more distinct, with not much in between. There
may even be some question whether anything will brush our west
central Minnesota counties. The most likely area for rain seems
to be over central and eastern North Dakota, where the forcing
is concentrated around the 700mb low and the upper jet. The NBM
probs for 0.25 inches of rain or more reflect this too, showing
70 percent values across the Devils Lake region, tapering to 40
percent across far southeast North Dakota into the adjacent
area of west central Minnesota. Probabilities for 0.50 inches or
more are around 40 percent for the Devils Lake region.

At this time yesterday, it looked like another round of
precipitation was possible across the far southern FA Friday
night into Saturday morning. Now this looks less likely,
reflected in the precipitation chances dropping to 20 percent
across the far southern Valley into west central Minnesota.
Precipitation amounts have scaled back to almost nothing now.
Brief 500mb ridging does inch up into the Northern Plains Sunday
into Monday. Should see at least some sun these days with highs
in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The next round of precipitation then
arrives Monday night and could linger through Wednesday, as a
closed 500mb low ejects out into the Northern Plains, and tracks
through very slowly. With much better agreement seen in the
ensembles for this period, precipitation chances have generally
risen to likely chances (60 percent), with about a 50 percent
probability for amounts of 0.25 inches or more. If this trend
continues, precipitation chances should continue to rise, as
should amounts. With these systems, we have generally been
seeing widespread 0.25 inches, all the way up to 0.75 inches.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Ceilings overnight into Wednesday morning will be an issue with
most locations dropping or maintaining in the IFR to low end
MVFR range. vsbys 3-5Sm in light rain/fog as well hanging on
esp Grand Forks to Devils Lake. Overall improvement anticipated
once we get past sunrise and can mix down some drier air and
clearing line moves more steadily northeast. That is the the
thought at least with VFR conditions spreading to most areas Wed
aftn.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Riddle