Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240334
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WINDS UPSTREAM WITH THE COLD FROPA GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH...AND
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ALOFT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE.
THIS LEAVES THE PREVIOUS UPDATE IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL ANTICIPATE A
BRIEF (UP TO AN HOUR) PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS/LOW VSBY BETWEEN 06Z-
12Z. BEFORE THE COLD FROPA...MILD TEMPS WILL CONTINUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN. RAP INDICATING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG 925MB-850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION 06Z-12Z
PROPAGATING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH @40KT WINDS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO 40-45 MPH. WILL INCREASE WIND GUSTS
DURING FROM 06Z-12Z...AND INTRODUCE PATCHY BLOWING SNOW. THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS BEEN BLOWN AROUND QUITE A BIT...WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT THE BLOWABLE SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL KEEP THE ISOLD-
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONTAL BAND DROPS THROUGH THE
AREA. LAYERED LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY SNOW FLURRIES APPEAR TO BE
ACCOMPANYING THE SYSTEM...AND EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT
EASTERN SASK AND MANITOBA. THESE BANDED LOW CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME INSULATION TO PRESERVE
OUR MILD HEAT GAINS FROM TODAY. MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL BAND INTO EARLY MORNING...THOUGH OVERALL SNOWFALL SHOULD
REMAIN SCANT. MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW IS MOST PROBABLE OVER
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGION WHERE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH AN INCH.

TUESDAY...EXPECT PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND SUN WITH STEADILY COOLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHERLY BLAYER FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN STRENGTHENS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE ARCTIC HIGH
SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SASK...HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS
BY THURSDAY. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
FAIR SKIES ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
HUDSON BAY...AND SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD
REINFORCING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE STORM TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PCPN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN
MAY BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR ERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...TG



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