Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Updated for aviation section below.

UPDATE Issued at 945 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

A quiet and seasonable day is ahead over the region. Warmer air
will continue to advect across the area today as high pressure
slides eastward, helping boost temps to near 80 over eastern North
Dakota by afternoon. Some mid/high cloud patches can be expected
at times.

UPDATE Issued at 701 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Per coord with WFO BIS did up sky cover in parts of NE ND with
increased mid and high clouds this morning. No other changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

sfc high pressure ridge axis over ern ND early this morning and it
will move east today with southerly return flow over ern ND this
aftn while winds east of the Red River valley will remain light
and variable. Some high clouds moving southeast from Saskatchewan
into the area...thickest in the northern parts of the fcst area.
But enough warming sfc-850 mb to push much of eastern ND into the
upper 70s with lower 70s in the eastern fcst area.

Tonight will see a short wave move east-southeast through Manitoba
and into NW Ontario brushing the Lake of the Woods region. Will
include a low pop for precip for the immediate Lake of the Woods
region after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Monday will see temperatures warm a good 10 degrees from Sunday
with a southerly wind 10-15 kts. Expect plenty of sun as well.
Monday night will start to see some low level moisture work north
and the northeast into west central MN. Will maintain idea of a
slight chc of thunder in this area 06z-12z tue period and then
spread chc into much of nw MN east of the RRV 12z-18z tue as warm
front lifts north.

For the rest of the area on Tuesday...sfc low will move NE thru NW
ND into southern Manitoba and cold front will move east into ern
ND in the aftn and reach far NW MN by 00z wed. Deep layered
moisture will be slow to arrive ahead of the front initially but
will be into the RRV and NW/WC MN late Tuesday aftn and evening.
Timing of front and deeper moisture arrival will determine where
t-storms will form. Also though best bulk shear (35 kts or more)
are a bit behind the front and mostly in southern Manitoba. Thus
looking for a likely brief period of when t-storms can form in
the RRV before front clears the GFK-FAR area with better risk in
eastern fcst area where deeper layered moisture will be present
for a longer period. SPC has the RRV and NW/WC MN in marginal risk
for svr late Tuesday and this seems reasonable. It will be a hot
day with highs mid 80s to lower 90s with thermal ridge setting up
just ahd of front mid aftn nr a Roseau to Grand Forks-Fargo axis.

Wednesday to Saturday...500mb upper low will track along the
International border during the day Wednesday bringing with it
chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few showers may linger
into Thursday as the 00Z EC keeps upper lift back to the west
longer than GFS. Dry Friday with another chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Saturday. Temperatures for the period will be in
the low 70s Wednesday and then mid 70s to near 80 for the rest of
the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR conditions likely through the TAF period. Winds will continue
to shift southerly through the afternoon and tonight with speeds
generally below 15 kts...although a few higher gusts are possible
this afternoon. Generally only expect some high cirrus at times
with a few patches of mid-level (10000 ft) clouds possible. Did
include mention of LLWS tonight as wind speeds increase just above
the nocturnal inversion layer.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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