Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 180549
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS AS THE TVF TO FOSSTON AREA HAS
SEEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND A SHARPER DROP IN TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO JUST BELOW ZERO
IN PARTS OF THE EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 946 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

SAT LOOP SHOWS CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH SOME HOLES
HERE AND THERE. MORE CONCENTRATED CLEARING IS STILL TO OUR
NORTHWEST OVER CANADA. RAP HAS DECENT RH VALUES IN THE 925 TO
850MB LAYER MATCHING UP WITH THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
TOWARDS MORNING. BUMPED UP CLOUDS COVER OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. SEVERAL LOCATIONS HAVE STAYED IN THE TEENS WHILE THE FEW
CLEAR SPOTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS. THINK THE
BEST CHANCES OF DROPPING BELOW ZERO WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE
THERE APPEAR TO BE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK WITH THE WEST
STAYING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS UP A BIT FOR THIS EVENING AS SAT LOOP AND OBS
SHOWED QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THAN WE HAD GOING IN THE
GRIDS. ALSO ADDED AN ISOLATED FLURRY MENTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THERE HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SOME FLAKES. WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON TEMPS FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST DEPENDING ON WHAT CLOUD
COVER DOES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO LINGER THE
LONGEST IN THE EAST. IT WILL BE A COLD NIGHT...BUT JUST HOW COLD
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WE GET. EXPECT THAT SOME CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
CUMULIFORM CLOUDS THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE. ANY AREAS THAT CLEAR WILL
DROP TO AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW...WITH CLOUDY AREAS WARMER.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS
NEAR 20 WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WAA ALOFT. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE TO THE S/SW...SO SNOW FREE AREAS COULD GET INTO THE LOW/MID
20S...STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

FOR TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SPREADING
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL
MUCH WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME WIND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED...AND TEMPS
COULD PEAK EARLY IN THE MORNING. IT WILL BECOME WIND WITH ABOUT
35-40KT TO MIX FROM 925 MB...SO THERE COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW
IN AREAS THAT HAVE SOME SNOW COVER. IT WILL BE A VERY SIMILAR DAY
TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...A BLUSTERY DAY.

ON THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION AND WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...IT
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MINIMAL MIXING...WITH
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE TEENS.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WILL START OUT THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS AT THE SFC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT SETTING UP A BREEZIER DAY FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
THEN TURNS MORE ZONAL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING
THRU. THE MAIN EFFECTS LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER SO
KEPT THE FORECAST DRY WITH THIS WAVE. A SECOND MORE SUBSTANTIAL
TROUGH MOVES IN BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 12Z OPERATIONAL RUNS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT WITH THE SFC PATTERN BY 12Z MON WITH THE ECMWF DEPICTING
A MUCH STRONGER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH
WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH. KEPT THE IDEA OF BROADBRUSHED SNOW CHANCES
SUN/MON AND WILL SEE WHAT LATER RUNS HAVE IN STORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

MOST SITES HAVE SEEN CIGS GO TO VFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 4000-7000
FT. HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW HAS KEPT VIS DOWN TO 3-5SM
AT TIMES AT KBJI. THINK THIS WILL LAST JUST A LITTLE BIT LONGER
AND THEN ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR. THE HIGHER CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. BUT ANOTHER FRONT MOVING IN WILL
SHIFT WINDS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...JR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.