Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181159
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
659 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Radar indicated comma head precip over the Red River Valley.
Thunderstorms were occurring along the southern border. Trailing
edge of precip was moving to the east around 20 knots. Added more
thunder in the southern zones for the next couple hours. Otherwise
no other change made at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through thursday night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Upper level pattern remains rather progressive. Upper level low
pressure system was located over the central ND/SD border and was
moving to the east at 30-35 knots. Line of thunderstorms was moving
across eastern SD and the far southern Red River Valley. Expect
storms to keep moving east across the far southern valley.
Occasional thunder can be expected roughly across the southern half
of the area this morning or roughly south of Hwy 200.

Other issue is snow Light snow is possible over parts of the Devils
Lake basin and into Nelson county. Couple inches of snow is possible
here. Light snow also expected over the far northeast zones in Lake
of the Woods and Roseau counties. An inch or two is possible this
morning. Most of the snow should melt with warm ground.  Surface low
pressure system was located over northern SD and will move to LS by
late afternoon.

Next upper level system will move across SD on Wed/Wed night and
produce rain over the southern Red River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Surface high pressure moves through Friday morning, bringing a
precipitation free period with light wind and decreasing cloud
cover. As a south wind returns and a weak upper level ridge moves
through the Northern Plains, expect Friday and Saturday to be the
warmest days of the week with high temperatures reaching into the
60s.

Friday through Sunday timeframe is mostly dry across the forecast
area, and potential impacts appear minimal during this period. The
forecast becomes more complex Saturday into Sunday and beyond as a
closed upper low over the Central Plains matures, inducing split
flow aloft. With a surface front moving eastward through the
Northern Plains and moisture content remaining uncertain for
Saturday afternoon/evening, kept small chances for rain showers in
for Saturday night. Temperatures through the weekend will remain
near normal values with highs in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the
30s.

The model solutions begin to differ in their progression of surface
features by early next week, but most recent runs depict a return of
zonal flow aloft and a more active weather pattern setting up for
next week. This pattern looks to start with a shortwave developing
rapidly in the Rockies Sunday/Sunday night, bringing precipitation
chances to the Northern Plains for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

MVFR to IFR conditions were located over the far western counties
and around the BJI area. Elsewhere VFR conditions were over much
of the northeast zones and over much of southeast ND. Expect MVFR
to IFR conditions over mainly the south and eastern zones for
today. VFR conditions will be over the far northern counties this
morning and will spread south and east during the day. VFR
conditions are expected for tonight and Wed.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...JH



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