Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 310859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL MOVE OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUE. MORE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED AFTER TUE.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH AND WILL
RISE TO AROUND AN INCH BY MON AFTERNOON AND AN INCH AND A QUARTER BY
WED MORNING. PRECIP FORECAST TO BE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIP IN EASTERN MT FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN ND THIS
AFTERNOON. FAIR AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TODAY. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ND AND WAS MOVING EAST. HOWEVER MODEL CROSS
SECTION INDICATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 HPA AND THE
SURFACE. PRECIP EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ZONES TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA MON
AND WILL BRING PRECIP TO SOUTHERN CANADA MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE IN ND TUE NIGHT WITH THREAT OF PRECIP PRECEDING
SYSTEM MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE AFTER
MON. WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

(WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...INDICATING MAINLY ZONAL/SW FLOW
ALOFT. THIS IS TYPICALLY AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THAT SAID...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH ACTUAL MOISTURE
RETURN (INSTABILITY) AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THESE
DETAILS WILL AFFECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY STORMS THAT DO
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED
SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHRA POTENTIAL TOMORROW. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS KEEP FA MAINLY DRY AND OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DRIER SO MAINTAIN DRY  TAF FORECAST.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...VOELKER



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