Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250446

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1146 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

No significant updates planned for the late evening.

UPDATE Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

No significant updates expected for this early evening.
Thunderstorms are starting to fire along a surface boundary west
of a Minot-Dickinson line. Scattered thunderstorms still expected
during the overnight and early morning into eastern ND... and
through the mid-morning and the forenoon hours across northwest


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Challenge for the next 24 to 36 hours will be convective
potential, timing, placement and coverage. First area of concern
is with the short wave along the SD/ND border. The wave will
continue its slow movement to the east in the nearly zonal
300-500mb 30kt steering flow. The elevated convection associated
with the wave is occuring within the narrow plume of warm air
advection and 850mb wind coverages. This will continue into the
evening and is expected to be strongest in the southern flank of
the MCV across NE SD. Will keep a mention of showers and thunder
in the southern FA this evening with weakening activity expected
late evening.

The next area of concern will be across the Devils Lake basin
tonight as convection is expected to develop along the dryline in
western ND and move to the east. Latest model guidance suggests
storms will struggle to move eastward into strengthening cap. Any
activity that does make into the FA is expected to remain north of
the Hwy 2 corridor and mainly along the international border.

Cold front associated with upper low and SFC low in Manitoba on
Tuesday will be the focal point for convection Tuesday afternoon.
Placement of the boundary and warm blyr temps will determine
timing of initiation with capping concerns limiting convection
for much of the FA. Storms appear to wait until late in the
afternoon to evening and by then the boundary look to be along the
southern valley and into the southeastern corner of the FA. Any
storms that can develop will be capable of producing hail up to
1.5 inches and wind gusts to around 60mph. Focus for storms will
sag south during the overnight and with it storm chances.

Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s in the valley where
convective debris does not limit max heating. A bit cooler in the
DVL basin and NW MN with sooner fropa and morning clouds

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The latest satellite imagery shows low level clouds have begun to
lift and scatter out over the Red River Valley and west central
Minnesota. Expect cloud cover to continue diminishing this evening,
becoming mostly clear overnight. High pressure will move east
following Highway 2 toward Lake Superior tonight, prompting light
winds and making for a nice mild evening. Lows overnight will drop
into the 50s at most locations.

On Monday, a combination of breezy southerly return flow and an
upper level ridge building through the forecast area will bring a
warmer day with highs nearing 90 in the Devils Lake basin area. A
front begins approaching from western North Dakota late Monday and
some weak shortwave energy skirts around the area during the day.
Moderate instability will develop during the afternoon, especially
in eastern North Dakota, but ridging aloft will keep mid levels warm
enough to hold capping until the evening.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Mainly VFR conditions with mid level clouds increasing from the
west through the overnight. Expect a cold frontal passage /FROPA/
moving across eastern ND and the northern Red River Valley
through the overnight and early morning...with a band of widely
scattered MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in thunderstorms. Expect this MVFR
band to push across northwest MN during the mid morning hours...
with FROPA winds turning more westerly through the late morning
and early afternoon. Mid to late afternoon should see scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms developing along and east of a BDE-
FSE-FAR line.




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