Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 110900
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SASK/MAN WILL MOVE INTO ONTARIO BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER THAN 100+ M HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR NORTH. IN WAKE
OF UPPER TROUGH, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE GFS WAS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FEATURES AND WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AT MID LEVELS TODAY.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE TODAY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM WINDS
WITH THETA-E DEFICITS EXCEEDING 21C BETWEEN LOW AND MID LEVELS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN, THEN
MAY ROB MOISTURE SUPPLY IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED RIDGE BUILDING OVER WESTERN CANADA. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO MOVE SOUTH AND
AMPLIFY SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF PRECIP SUN NIGHT.

PERSISTENT RAIN FELL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES. ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING FOR EASTERN OTTER TAIL AND SOUTHERN WADENA COUNTIES THIS
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

00Z ECMWF/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS PERIOD SO USED BLEND.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE STRONG UPPER LOW DROP INTO NRN MINNESOTA WITH
CLOUDS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST THOUGH WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
BUILDING QUICKLY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL WITH DRY
WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. CONFINED T CHANCES TO DVL AND BJI.
ELSEWHERE LACK OF INSTABILITY LIMITS CONFIDENCE ON PCPN POTENTIAL.
FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE FA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. WILL BE LOOKING AT WSHFT AND CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF
FROPA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER



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