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000
FXUS63 KFGF 191750
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1250 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

WITH CONVECTION IN SD ON A DECREASING TREND AND DEW POINTS GOING
DOWN AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN...CUT POPS THIS AFTERNOON TO JUST A
MENTION AFTER 21Z IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. THERE ARE
SOME CU GOING UP IN THAT AREA SO DID NOT WANT TO REMOVE COMPLETELY
AT THIS POINT. BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
SEVERAL SITES IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL CWA HAVE ALREADY HIT 80 SO
HIGHS AROUND 85 STILL SEEMS GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER...MADE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES STILL SEEM ON TRACK TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS KEEP PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER 00Z BUT A FEW
OF THE HIGH RES RUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA. GIVEN FAIRLY LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 20-30 POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR THIS PERIOD. THE NAM WAS A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION AND WILL NOT BE USED. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN AROUND 800 HPA THU NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR FRI ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF THROUGH
THU. THEN DROPS WITH DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY MOVING THROUGH ONLY TO
RISE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY-TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
TO LIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DETAILS REGARDING HOW AND WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE NW CONUS VERY UNCERTAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WITHIN THE SAT-SUN TIMEFRAME...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT TIMING AND STRENGTH. IT WOULD APPEAR THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH CIRRUS AND SOME CUMULUS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR. ISO/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH LOW CHANCES OF
ANY GIVEN SITE SEEING RAIN...WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS KBJI. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE YET IN THE TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI