Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 190859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

GFS AND ECMWF WERE SIMILAR THIS PERIOD. THE NAM WAS A MUCH FASTER
SOLUTION AND WILL NOT BE USED. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA TODAY SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT
WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

MUCH DRIER AND WARMER AIR MOVES IN AROUND 800 HPA THU NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THU/THU NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MORE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FOR FRI ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA.

PRECIPITABLE WATER RISES TO BETTER THAN AN INCH AND A HALF THROUGH
THU. THEN DROPS WITH DRIER AIR TEMPORARILY MOVING THROUGH ONLY TO
RISE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT.  LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY-TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LOW
TO LIFT FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS INTO CENTRAL CANADA ON
SUNDAY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RESULTING FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DETAILS REGARDING HOW AND WHEN THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
OUT OF THE NW CONUS VERY UNCERTAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WITHIN THE SAT-SUN TIMEFRAME...JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT TIMING AND STRENGTH. IT WOULD APPEAR THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A FEW STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION YET.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...TG
AVIATION...DK
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