Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250555 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1255 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Decreased chances for light showers across north central ND over
the next few hours as low level dry air seems to be inhibiting
precipitation from reach the surface.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Forecast challenge for tonight will be timing/magnitude of rain
showers currently over eastern MT. For remainder of aftn, cu field
over south expected to dissipate by mid evening with loss of
solar. For placement of precip, most hi-res models showing band of
showers move into DVL area aft midnight tonight and into northern
valley by the 09Z to 12Z timeframe. Decent warm advection
overnight will keep overnight lows in the upper 40s with
associated showers generally across srn MB and NE ND. The higher
res models are washing out the southern extent of the band of
showers prior to reaching Valley City and southeastern ND
zones. With general agreement between these model trends for
POPs, elected to use time lagged CONSSHORT for guidance. Best
chance for rain showers will be north of Hwy 2 along intl border
between Turtle Mtns and Hallock...with decreasing chances as
activity moves into NW MN tomorrow aftn. Winds expected to be
breezy ahead of H850 wind shift with sfc boundary not moving
across until Thu night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The period will start out with a 500mb low over southeast
Saskatchewan. This low will slowly track east-southeast, reaching
the western Great Lakes by 00Z Tuesday. 500mb temps around the mid
level low will stay minus 20C and below, resulting in morning sun
with afternoon and early evening convective showers possible. There
may even be a possibility of some rumbles of thunder, but overall
the thunder threat appears low at this point. As the low does move
into the Great Lakes, the flow shifts back to the northwest. Still
looking at some lingering showers early Tuesday, then dry by later
Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be some slight ups and downs with
temperatures, but overall it continues to look below normal. Most
models show Monday into Monday night being the coolest, with 850mb
temps either side of zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

VFR conditions expected for much of the upcoming forecast period.
Slight potential exists for brief MVFR cigs with some spotty
showers moving through the DVL area overnight and into this
morning. Also could have some low level wind shear near/just
above the inversion overnight in central ND and near DVL with
winds at 30-45 kts in the 1000-5000 ft range.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...BP/Voelker


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