Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 281439
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
939 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME ECHOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KJMS TO KFAR TO KPKD. HOWEVER SFC OBS ARE SHOWING THE CLOUDS
TO BE BETWEEN 6000 AND 10000FT WITH NO PCPN REPORTED. THEREFORE
THESE ECHOES ARE MAINLY VIRGA...BUT DID SEE THE WEB CAM AT ROTHSAY
SHOW THE ROADS A LITTLE WET. WILL REMOVE THE PCPN CHANCES IN THESE
AREAS FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND JUST GO WITH SPRINKLES OF
RAIN...OR NON ACCUMULATING. OTHERWISE THE DAY STILL LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS AND A LITTLE LESS
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN INITIAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES. STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TO SHIFT EAST TODAY
AND WEAKEN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS PERSISTING. WITH
WEAK RETURNS CONTINUING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN LOW
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL AGAIN HAVE A BEARING ON
TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL RH SO CI
MAY BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BLO AVERAGE CONSIDERING
COOL COLUMN IN PLACE.

WITH LOW EXITING MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. NOT A GREAT DEAL OF THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH THE COLUMN.
UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY FROM N-S OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH
BETTER CHANCE FOR SKC TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP AROUND FREEZING. WITH A BIT
MORE UNFILTERED SOLAR EXPECTED FRIDAY TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

NEXT UPPER LOW TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH RAIN SHIELD AS HIGH
NOSES INTO THE FA AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. HAVE PULLED
POPS WHICH WERE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE JUST BLO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
SOUTH AND NORTH STREAMS PHASE UP BUT REMAIN SPLIT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD  RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA DECREASES IN WAVELENGTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AND RETROGRADES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.

THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
WERE TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. WILL BLEND
THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR SUN AND MON AND
DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NE BREEZES
5-15KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.