Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 222106
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
406 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

GENERALLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EDGING BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT ON LOCATION AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINS...WITH THE ECMWF AND 12Z NAM FAVORING HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS FAR SERN ND INTO WCNTRL MN ON SATURDAY EVENING ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVIER DEFORMATION ZONE TYPE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ND THROUGHOUT SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE MINNESOTA LAKES COUNTRY INTO NORTHCENTRAL
MN...AND WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HANGING BACK WEST OF A CANDO TO
BISMARCK LINE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY EVENING COULD GIVE
WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER EARLY MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND A BLENDED ECMWF/GFS/GEM SOLN IS
REASONABLE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO SRN MANITOBA AND
ONTARIO...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LOOKS TO CROSS THE AREA BRINGING
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING TO TRIGGER -SHRA/-TSRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE TO WRAP BEHIND THE
LOW...KEEPING SKIES OVER THE AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY. AS THE UPPER TROF
DIGS IN...LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS CONTINUING THRU THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS...WITH SPOTS OF SCT CLOUD COVER OVER LAKES
COUNTRY. EXPECTING SOME SOLAR TO PENETRATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS RAISING CIGS A BIT...BUT 925MB AND 850MB FORECAST MOISTURE
FIELDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PERSISTENT CIGS THRU THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THEREFORE...WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE AIR
MASS...WILL RAISE CIGS A BIT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD.
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET WILL ALLOW CIGS TO FILL IN...AND WILL
MAINLY DROP DOWN TO IFR...WITH SOME MVR CIGS MIXED IN. SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LOOKING TO BE
PREDOMINANT AT THE TAF SITES ATTM.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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