Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281747
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Starting to see some shower development now, but no lightning
strikes in the FA yet. There has been some lightning north of
Pembina ND in southern Manitoba and some down near Mobridge SD.
The most activity at the moment is forming along the western edge
of the Red River Valley, where NE winds are turning more straight
N. With the morning sun, some weak CAPE exists in that area, but
pretty NIL bulk shear. Stronger forcing appears to be down around
the Sioux Falls SD area. Forecast calling for SCT shower and
thunderstorm activity for the afternoon/evening, which still looks
good.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Forecast challenge today with be extent of rain with approaching
stacked low. Models in reasonable agreement with main features but
continue to differ on extent of rain fall.

Stacked low over S central Nebraska will propagate NNE into S Mn
by evening. As it does arcing band of rain around low will lift
north into the Fa mainly from afternoon into the evening. Current
boundary(northern extent of inverted trough from southern low)
through the valley is expected to drift slightly west today as
more persistent NE surface flow develops. As broad scale lift
from low approaches could see more persistent pcpn along boundary.
Relatively low convective temperatures and moist layer will result
in quite a bit of cloud cover today holding temperatures down. As
a result convective parameters weak with at best 500 j/kg cape and
only slightly negative lifted index and weak shear. So at this
point not expecting a significant amount of rain fall. Also
ridging into the central Dakotas will limit pcpn potential over
the far western fa.

As upper low continues to lift east tonight pcpn should be ending
from W-E overnight. Dewpoints remain rather consistent so low
temperatures should not be too much different that what we have
been seeing.

Mid level flow will transition into a more zonal pattern on
Sunday. Column eventually dries during the day however with
convective temperatures in the mid 60s and shallow moist layer
will initially start with cloud cover and gradually thinning
clouds during mid/late afternoon. Temperatures should still be
able to recover into the 70s.

Minimum temperatures Sunday night will be a bit cooler with
clearing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Memorial Day looks should start out clear with advancing clouds
during the afternoon. Temperatures should be able to rise into the
upper 70s most areas with warmer column and solar.

Next upper low will propagate into the region Monday night into
later periods. This will bring increasing chances for pcpn to the
area.

Tuesday to Friday night...Attention will be on 500mb short wave
moving into the FA from the west on Tuesday. Timing and track will
appear to be in better agreement...leading to higher confidence
among model solns. Clouds and PCPN chances increase during the day
Tuesday from west to east with some modest instability working into
the southeastern areas of the FA. System wraps up on Wednesday with
clouds and showers exiting to the east along with north
winds...making the first day of June rather cool with highs in the
60s. Thursday and Friday temps return to the 70s as increasing
heights and NW 500mb flow bring drier weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Cigs remain ifr kdvl with mvfr/vfr to the east but all locations
will eventually reach mvfr as activity rolls northward this aftn
into the eve. Iso to sct nature of convection warrants vcsh
mention that can eventually be modified to include ts as needed.
Nne light winds will transition to nw overnight or sun morning.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JK/Voelker
AVIATION...WJB


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