Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 030831
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. MODELS
CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM VERY
SIMILAR AND PREFERRED.

FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THAT WE WILL
MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO.

ON FRIDAY...CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT A SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES FRIDAY EVENING...AND MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE
STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR REMAINS TO THE WEST...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY
STRONG INSTABILITY/MOISTURE...SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE SFC BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
BECOME LIKELY AS LLJ INCREASES DURING THE EVENING. A SFC BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE PROFILE...EVEN WITH WEAKER SHEAR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO BECOME A THREAT NEAR AREA THAT
GET REPEATED THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN VERY HIGH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AS THE WARM MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE PRECEDING THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN.

MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...BREEZY AND COOLER AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. CURRENTLY HAVE
A MAINLY DRY FORECAST TUE-WED...ALTHOUGH MODEL VARIABILITY BECOMES
MUCH GREATER DURING THIS TIME...LEADING TO LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

DEGREE OF ST/FG COVERAGE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME SPOTTY MVFR/IFR ST DEVELOPING ACROSS THE S-SE FA. GUIDANCE
LIFTS THIS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE DVL AND BJI
TAF SITES. IF THIS OCCURS NOT SURE HOW THICK FOG WILL GET AS WINDS
TO HOLD UP 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED SOME FOG/ST MENTION
ACROSS ABOVE AREAS LEAVING REMAINDER CLEAR. ANY LOWER CIGS/FG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY MID MORNING LEAVING REMAINDER OF FCST PERIOD
VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...VOELKER



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