Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230246
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WEAK MIXING IS STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL
DAKOTAS...WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. TEMPS IN THIS
AREA AND ALONG BIS CWA BNDRY WILL BE THE WARMEST ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE FAR EAST DECOUPLING AND SEEING TEMPS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S. WINDS AT BJI ARE ALREADY CALM SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR REGION FOR FOG...BUT CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS STILL 5
DEG...RANGING FROM 0 TO 2 DEG JUST TO THE EAST IN THE DLH WFO. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO ONGOING FCST EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING OVER THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP TOMORROW AFTN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND AN UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO AREA FROM WY/SD/NE AREA. 18Z NAM SHOWS SHOWALTERS
TOMORROW AFTN IN THE 4 TO 6 DEG RANGE SO HAVE REMOVED TS WARNING
AND WENT WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NO OTHERS CHANGES TO FCST ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPS AND WHAT HAPPENS AS THE
NEXT WAVE OVER WYOMING MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUE/TUE
NIGHT. MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH THE PCPN CHANCES
SO WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR WHAT WE HAVE HAD GOING. AS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY. THE STEADY LIGHT SOUTH TO SW
WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
ARE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN SD...AND THESE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD UP INTO THIS FA LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUE. LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN FA TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE COOLEST TEMPS
THERE. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO PICK ON TUE ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED CLOUD COVER. SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE THICKER CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL KEEP THINGS A LITTLE COOLER THERE.
AMERICAN MODELS LOOK DRIER NOW IN REGARD TO ANY LIGHT PCPN ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE WETTER AND FURTHER NORTH. THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO TUE NIGHT WITH THE AMERICAN MODELS STILL
LOOKING PRETTY DRY. FOR NOW MAINTAINED SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY
ACROSS THE MN FA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EAST OF THE FA ON WED WITH 500MB RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR QUIET AND WARM
WEATHER WED INTO THU.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING STRONG
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 12Z RUNS ARE STRONGER WITH
THE UPPER RIDGING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...THIS PERIOD IS LOOKING DRY
NOW. BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SKC CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASING BY NOON TUESDAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER W CNTRL MN
TOMORROW AFTN WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/TG
AVIATION...SPEICHER






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