000
FXUS63 KFGF 172333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MODERATE CAPE IN WESTERN ZONES...AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
H500 LOW WILL KEEP SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS
MY SOUTHWEST THROUGH MID EVENING. DO HAVE A COUPLE OF TSTMS ON
RADAR AT CURRENT TIME...ONE OVER WESTERN CASS COUNTY AND THE OTHER
IN CENTRAL POLK. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT SHOWERS COULD HOLD ON IN THE VALLEY CITY AREA AS UPPER
LOW APPROACHES...BUT THINK ALL ACTIVITY WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. WILL
FINE TUNE POPS FOR 7 PM CDT UPDATE WITH NO SIG CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST INCLUDE DISSIPATING SHOWERS/
T-STORMS THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
EXIST MODEL VARIANCES WITH QPF OUTPUT...SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

20 UTC RADAR SHOWS A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS FROM NEAR CANDO TO
PARK RAPIDS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SAG SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL
MN BY 06 UTC TONIGHT. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...BUT
OVERALL VERTICAL EXTENT OF CU IS LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF CU/SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING
AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO CENTRAL WI. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND FROM 5 TO 10 MPH.
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS 1 TO 4 C BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR
WEDNESDAY IS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL KEEP LOW-END
CHANCE POPS GOING DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A ROGUE SHORT-WAVE RIPPLE
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS.
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST PLACES BOTH DAYS WITH MORNING LOWS FROM
THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S.

THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP FOR
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD. UPPER LOW OVER PAC NW TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN IT BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST.
THIS WILL KEEP FA IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SW MID LEVEL FLOW. WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX INTO
FA RESULTING IN INCREASING PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES AND DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE AVAILABLE. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE WHERE LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARIES/LOW LEVEL FORCING SETS UP AS BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE FA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CLOSE WITH
MAIN FEATURES HOWEVER DIFFER ON LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES.
FOR THIS TOUGH TO PIN POINT WHERE FAVORED AREAS FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. PROBABLY BE SEEING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AND MILD
OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN EASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY BY
MORNING. TSTM WEST OF KFAR AREA SHOULD REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM
AERODROME AND WILL KEEP ONLY VCSH (NOT VCTS) FOR 00Z TAFS. EXPECT
VFR CU DECK TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY 03Z FOR REMAINDER OF NIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER