Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261803
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
103 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Winds have been flirting at times with advisory criteria, but it
has not been constant. These gusty winds should die down through
the evening, and more so for areas west of the Red River Valley.
There were some frosty morning readings to the west of the FA this
morning, and these should set up for areas west of the valley
tonight. Went ahead and issued a frost advisory for that area.
Clouds filling back in across northwest MN too, so bumped up cloud
amounts a little more there.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Main concern for this period will be min temps tonight, and frost
potential. Models are in good agreement and will use the blend for
main features. The upper low across northern Minnesota will
continue to slowly propagate east today, stalling across the
northern great lakes region tonight. Using 850mb temps as a proxy
for the airmass, and mixing to about this height leads to max
temps in the low 60s across eastern ND and mid 50s into Minnesota.
About 30 knots to mix from 850mb, which likely leads to wind
speeds just below advisory criteria. For tonight...with lighter
winds and clear sky expect decoupling, with min temps dependent
on dew point values. Upstream dew point values are in the mid to
upper 30s, and expect Tuesday morning temps to be near these
values along and west of the valley (which could lead to patchy
frost).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Tuesday-Wednesday...The upper low propagates south into the Ohio
valley as upper ridging builds into the region. Nearly calm winds
Tuesday night should lead to the coldest temperatures this period.
Not sure exactly how cold, but likely a good chance for frosty
conditions in some places. Otherwise, dry weather and slightly
warmer temps into mid-week.

Thursday-Sunday...Upper level ridging  will persist across the
region on Thursday providing another day with plenty of sunshine.
The main ridge axis will begin to move off to the east Thursday
night with breezy southerly flow to returning.

As the ridge slides further east, southwest flow aloft will set up
late in the week. The GFS depicts a few weak waves passing through
producing a little bit of QPF across the western forecast area on
Friday and Saturday. The latest run of the ECMWF also picks up on
some QPF but keeps it further west across western North Dakota.
Therefore, will continue with a dry forecast for now through
Saturday.

Sunday will bring the next best chance for precipitation as an upper
trough digs into the Pacific Northwest with several additional waves
rounding the trough progged to impact the area. However, the
timing/confidence in these chances are yet to be ironed out.

Relatively little change in thermal profiles late in the work week
and into the weekend will keep high temperatures just slightly above
normal (upper 60s to low 70s) with mild lows in the upper 40s and
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Gusty northwest winds will begin to decrease this evening,
becoming lightest at KDVL overnight. Some SCT to BKN clouds have
been filling back in across northwest MN, affecting KTVF and KBJI.
These should fade away later this afternoon. However, guidance
shows some even lower ceilings building back westward through
KBJI and KTVF later tonight into early Tue. Kept some lower
ceilings at these two locations for then.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/Lee
AVIATION...Godon


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