Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280839
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
339 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Well defined compact vort max is now moving into NW MN. Area of
showers with it is a bit smaller than earlier, but moving thru the
Bemidji area. The today and tonight period will be influenced by
upper level low in central Manitoba. This will drop south-
southeast slowly and do look for a couple of short waves to move
south on the west side of the upper low. The main one for today
appears to be in east central Saskatchewan at 08z. This will move
SSE into the RRV this aftn and generate a pretty good coverage of
showers. Enough for likely pops NE ND and NW MN this aftn/eve.
Gusty winds as well with about 35 kt to mix down. Sustained winds
15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph seem reasonable in the main wind
corridor from north central ND into southeastern ND. Did go higher
than the model blend for winds per area office coordination.

Shower threat will diminish a bit overnight but still expect a few
showers to hang around thru the overnight, esp NE half of the fcst
area.



.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Upper level low will move southeast and be over northeastern
Minnesota Monday. Several short waves still to impact the area
so expect scattered showers. Coolest day Monday with temps in the
50s and continued gusty north-northwest wind.

Tuesday will see the upper trough gradually exit but still likely
a few aftn showers esp RRV and east.  Clearing Tues night.


Wednesday through Saturday...The models are in general agreement on
northwesterly flow aloft but differ on various shortwaves moving
through. The GFS brings a shortwave and weak frontal boundary
through on Thursday while the ECMWF has a more vigorous shortwave
coming through on Friday. With high uncertainty will keep the
blended solution going which has some low POPs late Friday and
Friday night and fits the ensemble probabilities better than either
of the deterministic models. Temps should be near average for the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z
Sunday night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Winds and rainshowers continue to be aviation concerns tonight.
Most sites have turned to NW winds and velocities have subsided
tremendously...however BJI still seeing SE winds which should
switch to NW near time 06Z TAFs go into effect. Showers rotating
around upper system will slide back into GFK area form the NW near
06Z and into TVF an hour or so later, however CIGs still expected
to remain VFR and most activity should slide east of area by 10Z.
Will need to monitor DVL for BR/FG as it has cleared out with dew
point depressions around 1 C and recent rain. NW winds become
gusty again tomorrow PM and models are showing MVFR sliding into
NW MN tomorrow evening, however no mention at this time in 06Z
TAFs.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Riddle/JR
AVIATION...Speicher


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