Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300541
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL DECK REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN
COUNTIES AND HAS NOT MOVED BACK EAST YET. THINK THAT AS WINDS
SHIFT LATER TONIGHT WE WILL SEE THE STRATUS MOVING BACK EAST AND
MORE MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. ADJUSTED CLOUD GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AND SHOULD DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE STARTING TO
COME BACK UP LATER TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH AND CLOUDS AND MILDER TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THAT SHOULD HANG
OUT THERE FOR A WHILE BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE BACK EAST AS A
NARROW BAND LATER TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THERE IS SOME
CLEARING JUST WEST OF DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT COULD ALLOW TEMPS IN
THAT AREA TO DROP SHARPLY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE COMING
BACK UP...SO LOWERED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THAT AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

KDVL REMAINS AT MVFR WITH THE STRATUS DECK OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA. THE OTHER SITES HAVE SEEN SOME HIGHER CLOUDS
STARTING TO MOVE IN...AND HAVE STAYED VFR. THINK THE FAIRLY NARROW
BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE EAST...EVENTUALLY BRINGING KGFK AND KFAR
TO MVFR BEFORE SUNRISE AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES A BIT AFTER. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP ALL SITE VFR FOR A WHILE IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE SOME MORE MVFR CIGS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 12 KTS AND THEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...JR





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