Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1224 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Temperatures remain a little cooler than expected in the northeast
FA, up around the Lake of the Woods. Went ahead and lowered highs
just a little in that area. Otherwise, seeing steady flurries or
very light snow still being reported at quite a few locations.
Therefore, extended the mention of some very light snow through
the rest of the afternoon for most of the area as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Water vapor loop an upper level trough over southeast MT/WY border
and was moving to the south/southeast around 50 knots. Short wave
producing weak returns mostly western ND and the far western
zones. Another short wave was located over southern MAN also
moving south. The short was also producing weak returns over the
northern Red River Valley and will move across the forecast area
this morning. Radar showed weak returns over the northwest half of
the valley and was moving to the southeast about 40 knots. Will
add flurries for this morning. Very light snow is expected over
the far northeast zones this morning.

Another short wave was located over the Northwest Territories and
was moving to the south. Short wave may brush the northeast zones
this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Friday-Saturday...A pattern change is expected as the northerly flow
aloft becomes more zonal. As this occurs deep warm air advection
snowfall along the baroclinic zone will bring snowfall to the
majority of the region (except possibly southeast North Dakota).
Upper level support is lacking and believe most model guidance is in
the ballpark with their QPF output. Given the type of forcing (warm
air advection), snow ratio values should be toward the lower end of
the spectrum (10:1 to 14:1). The main story will be a prolonged
period of light snow with total accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Winds
will be light, so impacts will be limited. Forcing ends by Saturday

Sunday-Wednesday...With zonal flow set up, a stronger system will be
propagating across central Canada during the early work week period. A
surface trough extending from this system will bring a chance for
precipitation to mainly the northern FA on Monday (likely snow,
trace amounts). Then, a cold front will bring windy conditions
Monday night/Tuesday. There may be some blowing snow impacts with
this wind (depending on how much snow falls prior), although
temperatures on Monday may approach or exceed the freezing mark, so
impacts may be limited. Watching the potential for a stronger system
mid-late week, but details very uncertain.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

Models not showing much change to ceilings throughout the 24 hour
TAF period, keeping them pretty much in the MVFR range. With the
steady cloud cover, think flurries or very light snow remain
possible as well. The steady northwest winds this afternoon will
become light tonight into Friday morning.




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