Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300349
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
949 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Will maintain chance pops over most of the fa overnight. Current
radar returns pretty weak supported by fairly good visibility
across the forecast area. High resolution model guidance also
pretty weak with potential pcpn overnight. Will continue to see
transition over to snow overnight however again...no accumulation
expected. Did lower minimum temperatures slightly across the north
and west.  No other significant changes.

UPDATE Issued at 632 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Increased pops through the valley early this evening with narrow
band of mainly rain.  Otherwise changes were minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Impacts continue to be low visibilities as saturated low level
airmass supports a mixed bag of rain, snow, drizzle and fog across
the northern plains. The upper level low pressure system that has
remained relatively stationary over the past 24 to 36 hours
bringing record snows to central ND will begin to move east
tonight and be centered over western Wisconsin by 18Z Wednesday.

There remains two areas of higher potential for precip overnight.
The first remains the light snow in western Devils Lake basin as
deformation zone has remains stationary and the moisture feed
across southern Canada continues into north central ND. This
feature shows some weakening or thinning on Canadian radars.
Accumulations will be another 1 to 2 inches by morning. The
second band of precipitation, more broken in nature, extends from
the MN arrowhead into the central and southern valley. This band
is expected to bring a light rain and once temperatures cool some
tonight wet snow. That rain snow mix will continue on Wednesday
where temps can warm into the mid 30s. Where temps stay closer to
freezing the light snow and or drizzle will linger. Accumulations
will be light with an inch or so possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 304 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

The first issue for the long term period will be the departure of
the main system from earlier this week. As of 00z Thursday, models
are in decent agreement with the surface low out across the eastern
Great Lakes and the 500 mb low lagging a bit behind near the
Wisconsin/Minnesota border. Therefore, some low PoPs overnight
Wednesday into Thursday morning on the backside of the system remain
reasonable but decreasing from west to east as the low pulls away.
Forecast soundings do show the saturated layer shrinking quickly
with drier air building into the mid and upper levels. Therefore,
have continued with freezing drizzle mention (temperatures upper
20s/around 30) for this time period as low level moisture should
remain sufficient until later in the day on Thursday.

Some residual moisture could linger across northern Minnesota
through the end of the week but as the main low finally pulls away,
high pressure will eventually build into the central Plains. The end
of the work week and start of the weekend should be mostly dry with
maybe even a little bit of brief sunshine. Models then depict a weak
wave traversing the area Saturday night into Sunday with some light
snow showers. A stronger system will follow on its heels to start
next week with some new snow accumulation possible. At this time,
models have this system straddling the international border with the
north seeing the highest impacts but trends will continue to be
monitored.

No surprises regarding temperatures through the majority of the
period with highs around freezing during the day and dropping into
the low to mid 20s at night. This looks to change following the
system early next week with much cooler air coming in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Continuation of IFR-ocnl MVFR CIGS through the period. VSBY a
little less certain and more variable. Likely see more br mixing
in with mixed pcpn overnight continuing into the morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Voelker



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