Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 220900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
400 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over western Ontario
with short waves over southwest MAN, eastern MAN, western
Ontario and western WI. Short waves will rotate around upper
low for today and Tue. Upper low over Western Ontario will
move into northwest MN Mon night.

Upper low will move into IA/southeast MN on Tue and take the
showery precip with it. Upper level ridge over the western North
America will move over the Northern Plains Wed. Next upper low
will move into SASK by 12Z Thu.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

For Thursday and Thursday night, a stacked surface and upper low in
southern Saskatchewan slowly shifts northeastward, bring southerly
flow and increased moisture supply into the Northern Plains. This
system brings breezy conditions and increased chances for showers,
and perhaps some storms, to the Red River Valley along and ahead of
the cold front passage in this timeframe.

For Friday and the upcoming weekend, the aforementioned system
matures to our north in the Canadian Plains. With west/northwest low
level flow and forcing behind the front, the latest model runs
suggest mostly drier periods for the weekend. While the weekend
doesn`t look to be a wash out by any means, an unsettled weather
pattern will bring some isolated to scattered light precipitation at
times and increased cloud cover as weak disturbances continue
swinging through.

Little change in temperature is expected for the end of the week and
through the weekend. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
normal with diurnal swings from highs in the 60s and 70s to lows in
the 40s to 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Plenty of low level moisture and associated clouds will remain
across the region through the TAF period. The worst conditions
will be across northwest Minnesota with MVFR ceilings (possibly
brief IFR) at KTVF and KBJI. Low end VFR will continue at KGFK
and return to KDVL and KFAR as the overnight continues. Rainfall
chances throughout the period will be fairly scattered so have
elected to keep out for now with the exception of some VCSH to
cover the scattered sprinkles currently ongoing. Northwest winds
of 5-10 kts tonight will begin to turn more northerly by morning
and increase to 10-15 kts.




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