Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 291957
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND SMOKE
INFLUENCING TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THROUGH THU...WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...THE THICK SMOKE PLUME OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISPERSE
SOME BUT MAY HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT WHERE IT PERSISTS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE DAY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR A STORM IN THE FAR WEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SMOKE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

FOR WED/THU...EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR A STORM
MAINLY IN THE WEST. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN FROM CLOUD AND IF
THERE IS ANY SMOKE STILL AROUND...WHICH IS POSSIBLE WITH
PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN QPF AREA SHOULD BE ALONG OR
JUST WEST OF THE FA...WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ALSO TO OUR
WEST.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ONE SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE
EAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PCPN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN FA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT PASS THROUGH SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MILDEST 850MB TEMPS MOVE OVER THE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT BRINGING DOWN COOLER TEMPS THEREAFTER. MORE MODEL
DIFFERENCES COME INTO PLAY FOR MONDAY WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME
SLIGHT PCPN CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS SHOWING THEM ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE LAYER PRETTY MUCH ACTING LIKE A BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CIRRUS DECK. WILL KEEP THIS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT MAY GO SCT AT TIMES. THERE WAS A BIT OF HAZE
AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND THERE COULD BE SOME AROUND AGAIN TUE
MORNING. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH SO WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW.
NORTH-NW WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT LATER ON THIS EVENING. SOME MODELS
SHOW SOME PCPN NEAR KDVL BY LATE TUE MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE ALSO LOW
WITH THIS...LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD IF CONFIDENCE GROWS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...GODON


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