Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Temps a bit slower to rise as mixing remains a little less than
yesterday. Still on track for a mid to late afternoon bump with
more efficient mixing at peak heating. Forecast remains unchanged
through the afternoon and into the overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 937 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Little changes to the forecast with nearly full sun and another
day of efficient mixing expected this afternoon. Will be very
warm for mid October, 15 to 20 degrees above normal with highs in
the mid 70s along the valley and a touch cooler elsewhere.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

How warm today is the question, as 850 temps warm some 5 deg C
from 00z Tue to 00z Wed. Southwest wind today in the 10-20 kt
range today along with plenty of sun should help boost temps a
good 4-5 degrees over Monday`s. Thus went with the warmer guidance
ideas for highs today, which push much of the Red River valley
into the 74-77 range. Clear sky tonight until very late when some
high level moisture increases into the DVL region ahd of the
front. 850 mb winds increase overnight with 40-50 kts at 850 mb
level, but inversion present near the sfc will keep these strong
winds from reaching the surface. Strong 850 mb thermal gradient
with vary warm airmass ahd of front with a good 10 deg fall in 850
mb temps behind it in a short time into DVL region close to 12z
Wed. The inversion just abv the sfc will shield the area from the
very warm and windy airmass just abv.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

For strong will the winds be. All models indicate
the max in 850 mb are in the 12-15z period as the front moves
through with 40-50kt. 925-850 mb wind decrease some by 18z into
the 30-40 kt range. GFS soundings show better mixing at 18z with
mixed layer to just above 800 mb in NE ND where winds of 45 kt
present. All signs point to advisory criteria winds in the DVL
basin,nrn RRV Wed midday-aftn with sustained values 25-30 kts and
gusts 45kts. Best drying aloft and best mixing and thus highest
risk of 50kt winds reaching the surface is a bit farther north
more over parts of southern Manitoba closer to the deep low in
northern Manitoba. So for this reason no high wind watches being
issued. Since advisory more likely will let dayshift monitor for
further updates/changes. Significantly cooler Wednesday with highs
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday and Friday will be marked by a return to warm
temperatures and breezy southerly winds. Current guidance is in
reasonably good agreement of a warm, moist airmass being advected
from the central plains into the Red River Valley and surrounding
regions. This warm advection regime at the surface will aid in
building of the upper level ridge over the Plains and south
central Canada. Temperatures for Thursday and Friday are expected
to reach into the low to mid 70s for much of the Red River
Valley... eastern North Dakota... and west central Minnesota with
mid 60s expected for northwest Minnesota. Southerly winds at 15 to
20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are likely both days.

Meanwhile... a longwave trough is anticipated to begin moving into
the Pacific northwest region during this time period. Lee
cyclogenesis is expected over the norther plains on Saturday...
through model guidance differs on the placement of the surface low
as well as the speed and orientation of the upper level trough.
However... with sufficient moisture in place rain showers are
expected along a cold front during the day and into the evening on
Saturday. Though a few recent model runs have hinted at enough
instability for a few thunderstorms, confidence is not high enough
to keep thunderstorms in the forecast at this point. Scattered rain
chances will continue Sunday through Monday as some model guidance
suggests a secondary shortwave embedded in the northwesterly flow on
the backside of the longwave trough. This could allow for a few
showers across the region. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday should
cool to the low to mid 60s for much of the region. A return to
seasonal weather is expected for the start of the next work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Aviation impacts centered around winds over the 24 hours. SW
winds with a few gusts to 20kts possible this afternoon. Evening
and overnight inversion will set up with winds increasing
considerably above the sfc inversion will see wind shear with
southwest winds aloft at 40 to 50kts. These winds will turn to
the west with fropa and become surfaced based with strong gusts
at DVL, GFK and TVF tomorrow morning.




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