Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 200447
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1147 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Biggest question is if any precip over western ND/eastern MT makes
it into our southern counties. Radar returns continue to move
eastward into the CWA, although little more than sprinkles
has been reaching the ground. Will continue to keep a sprinkle
changing to flurry mention in the far southwest. Models start to
bring in some strong 700mb frontogensis into southeastern ND by
the 09Z time frame. However, model soundings show a pretty
extensive dry layer below that so think that much will evaporate
before reaching the ground. The RAP and HRRR follow the larger
scale models with this trend, with the simulated radar showing
returns continuing over the area but QPF staying west. Will
continue to keep just sprinkles or flurries but will keep a close
eye on things overnight.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Currently, an upper level wave is moving east-northeast across
northern MB with a surface low just out ahead of this wave. An
occluded front is moving east across the Red River Valley this
afternoon. After a relatively warm day today, temps will cool
only into the mid 20s to low 30s tonight as high pressure builds
in over central ND. Trended on the cold side of guidance at most
locations as expecting skies to clear out late except for perhaps
the far south. Some of the high- res models have a
frontogenetical band of snow nosing in from the west into the
Valley City area late tonight. The synoptic models do have the
mid-level frontogenesis. However, they are drier and do not
support precipitation formation this far east. Have left it out
for now.

Mostly sunny skies are expected for Monday as high pressure
dominates. Although some cooler air will have moved in for Monday,
temps in the 40s are expected in most areas by mid afternoon.
Winds will be relatively light from the west to northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Surface high pressure builds south southeast out of southern
Canada Monday night into Tuesday. This should bring a period of
clearing skies and steady north winds to the area. By 18Z Tuesday,
models show 850mb temps of -20C along the Canadian border to
around -10C along the SD border. This should translate to Tuesday
being the coldest day of the week, with only the far southern FA
rising above 32F during the day. Tuesday night will probably be
the coldest night too, as the surface high moves into the MN
arrowhead. This would bring the lightest winds to the Baudette to
Wadena MN corridor, and the possibility of single digit lows.

Return flow sets up Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the models
indicating spotty very light warm advection related precipitation
moving through portions of the FA. The 500mb flow pattern shifts
more southwest by Thursday, with a closed low developing over the
central plains by Friday. Along with this feature, the models bring
steadier precipitation northward, but at this point limit it mainly
to the far southern FA. It appears that surface high pressure in
Canada will try to limit how far north any of this precipitation
gets. Precipitation type could be an issue, but for the most part it
should stay in liquid form, with highs above freezing during the day
and lows right around freezing at night. It should remain mainly dry
into the weekend, with a similar mild temperature regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

All sites are VFR with ceilings over 10000 ft and this trend will
continue with only some slightly lower mid cloud expected.
Northwest winds below 12 kts will drop even lower later tonight
and tomorrow, then pick up again out of the northwest late in the
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JR



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