Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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204
FXUS63 KFGF 071834
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1234 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

GUSTS TO 40KT+ NOW THROUGH MOST OF THE VALLEY AS WELL AS DVL
BASIN. VSBY DOWN TO A 1/4 MILE AT HCO WITH REMAINDER OK. STILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALLEY EAST THIS AFTERNOON
HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS LIGHT AND AT THIS POINT ANY MAJOR VSBY
RESTRICTION WILL BE LIMIT TO ISOLD HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. SO WHILE
TRUE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ISOLD AT BEST WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES
GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SURFACE PRESSURE RISE MAXIMA OVER S CENTRAL MB SHIFTING SE ALONG
WITH STRONGER PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION JUST CROSSING THE BORDER.
AS THESE FEATURES WORK IN WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP AS MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOWING 50+ KTS IN MIXED LAYER. ALL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWING
NOT MUCH FOR SNOWFALL TODAY ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND NOT LIKELY TO MOVE HAVE REPLACED FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH
A HIGH WIND WARNING VS BLIZZARD. REMAINDER OF HEADLINES WILL STAY
THE SAME FOR NOW ALTHOUGH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEY MAY BE
MORE SPOTTY WITH BEST POTENTIAL LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
INCREASE POPS FROM VALLEY EAST WITH SNOW BAND EXPANDING AND
SHIFTING SE. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NOW WAITING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CHANGE RAIN/SNOW OVER
TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WERE UP OVER THE ND SIDE WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 45 MPH. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED DOUBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWEST MN
AND THE OTHER OVER NORTHWEST ND. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SETTLE
INTO THE EASTERN US BY 84 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WAS BUILDING ON THE WEST COAST.

SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TEMP DROP THIS MORNING UNTIL COLDER AIR BLOWS IN.

COLDER AIR OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. WIND WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING. SNOW THAT FALLS THIS
MORNING WILL MOSTLY BE WET AND NOT BLOW MUCH. AS COOLER AIR ARRIVES
LATER THIS MORNING SNOW WILL DRY OUT AND BEGIN TO BLOW. ALSO SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MOST
OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN NORTHWEST MN OR JUST EAST OF THE
RED RIVER/ ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW FOR TODAY LESS FOR TONIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING CONTINUES FOR EASTERN ND FOR TODAY. SET THE START
TIME BACK TO 6 AM FOR THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND KEPT THE SAME TIME
FOR THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TO START AT 9 AM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
PERIOD AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE IF ANY WEAK REINFORCING
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BRING
MEASURABLE PRECIP. MODELS ARE AS EXPECTED ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH
SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS DRY FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY BUT HAVE SOME LOW POPS WEST OF THE RED RIVER FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTER LOOKING AT THE MODEL BLENDS WHERE SEVERAL MEMBERS HAVE SOME
LIGHT QPF. FLOW TRANSITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. NEXT PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE JUST AFTER THE PERIOD AS
A FAIRLY GOOD SHORTWAVE COMES IN AFTER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH QUITE A
FEW DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS HANGING AROUND THE EASTERN CWA AS THE
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THINK THAT HIGHS AND LOWS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH THE FAR SOUTHWEST REMAINING CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHER THICKNESS VALUES. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST
LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BRING SOME WARMER TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

LOOKING AT MAINLY MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A SLOW MOVER. THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING
THE AREA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONG WINDS
TO PERSIST THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE POCKETS OF
SNOW THAT WILL REDUCE VSBY TO AS LITTLE AS ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES AT
FAR AND BJI IN THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN
THOSE TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-038-049-052.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-
     029-030-039-053-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007-027-
     029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ006-009-017-
     024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ005-008-
     013>016-022-023-028-031.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS



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