Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251618
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1018 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

GOING FCST GOING WELL. INCOMING 12Z GFS AND LATEST HRRR/RAP MODELS
ALL SHOW MAIN SNOW BAND WITH THIS SYSTEM AS ADVERTISED MINOT AREA
TO JAMESTOWN INTO SISSESTON AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF FCST
AREA IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HEADLINES AT THE
PRESENT. SOME QUESTION ABOUT WILKIN COUNTY AND THAT WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED FOR ADDING TO ADVISORY. WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THE SAME. TEMPS LOOKING GOOD SO NO CHANGES AT THE
PRESENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW. WILL SIDE WITH MORE OF A GFS/ECMWF MIX THAT IS A BIT FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH SNOW BAND...AND THE 6Z NAM IS STARTING
TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL.

FOR TODAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST...SPREADING PERHAPS INTO THE VALLEY AROUND 00Z WED.

FOR TONIGHT...THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS DEEPER
ASCENT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS/FGEN AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW WITHIN THE OVERALL
LIGHT SNOW BAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FROM NEAR JMS INTO
SOUTHEAST ND...WHERE UP TO 5-6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. IF MORE BANDING
OCCURS...THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-7 INCHES
PERHAPS...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE FROM
RAMSEY COUNTY INTO RICHLAND COUNTY AND POINTS WEST INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT...CAUSING SOME BLOWING SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ND. THE WED
MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE IMPACTED WITH SNOW/BLOWING SNOW. WE WILL
ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND START IN
THE WEST AT 21Z TODAY...STARTING 00Z IN THE SOUTHEAST ND...AND RUN
IT THROUGH 15Z WED. IF THERE IS ANY SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
HEAVIER SNOW BAND...THEN WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND IT A BIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT FEEL THIS WILL BE A GOOD STARTING POINT. THERE WILL BE
ABOUT 25-30KT TO MIX FROM 925MB WED MORNING AROUND 12Z IN THE
SOUTH VALLEY...SO EXPECT LOW VSBYS AROUND 1/2SM WHEN SNOW
COMBINES WITH INCREASING WINDS.

ON WED...THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND IT WILL BE A
COLD DAY WITH TEMPS RISING LITTLE FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FOR WED NIGHT...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MOST AREAS AND A 1038MB
HIGH OVER THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BELOW ZERO FOR ALL AREAS.

FOR THANKSGIVING...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT
WILL BE COLD...WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO.

FOR THU NIGHT...A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...FROM 2-4
INCHES MOST LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL IMPACT
TRAVEL THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
SNOW THREAT. SOUTHEAST WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20-25MPH RANGE...COUPLED
WITH FALLING SNOW THAT COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WILL CREATE
TRAVEL ISSUES...STAY TUNED.

FRIDAY TO MONDAY...UPPER PATTERN SHOWS MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION CROSSING THE REGION. SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER MONTANA WILL HAVE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS SD...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER THE
AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE
IS FORECAST TO DIG IN TO THE NRN PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD
AIR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN
SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE UNDER 5KT THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BEFORE
INCREASING AND SHIFTING TO THE EAST...THEN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
WITH FALLING SNOW IN ADDITION TO BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AT KFAR NEAR HEAVIER SNOW BAND AND WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30KT POSSIBLE.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ014-024-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...DK






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