Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170253 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
953 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

No changes necessary. Some isolated to scattered convection still
expected to move into northeast North Dakota around midnight. Low
level jet development providing some forcing overnight, but
instability and and effective bulk shear values do not look to
favor severe storm development late this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The main forecast challenge will be convective potential, coverage
and strength late tonight through tomorrow.

Mid level ridge axis currently over the fa. Appears the main wave
in the upstream sw flow lifting ne from s Sask into e Mt.
Associated surface boundary over eastern Mt with weak convection
ahead of boundary from western ND into N Central ND. Overall
convective parameters not all that impressive and to continue
most of the evening hours as boundary approaches the n central fa
towards 06z. Mu cape/instability does become more favorable aft
06z however best forcing with low level jet across the border into
s sask/mb and shear remains fairly weak. As a result see no need
to increase pops out of slight to chance ranges overnight in
support of high resolution models and CAMS. Mixing and eventual
clouds will hold temperatures up from the upper 50s into the 60s.

Current guidance indicating that any residual am convection will
be confined to the ne fa as wave continues to lift ne. Cloud cover
may have a role in additional development but will most likely
have to wait til later in the afternoon for destabilizing
atmosphere, convective initiation and where boundary is oriented.
At any rate convective parameters looks sufficient if we can heat
out for severe storms with stronger shear. Temperatures will
depend on clouds however column will be pretty warm to support
temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Surface low pressure will exit the eastern edge of the forecast area
Monday night...with some residual showers/storms in its wake. As the
system exits...the upper pattern becomes more zonal and the jet will
set up along the international border. Models indicate a few waves
propagating through the flow...and the resultant instability will
bring chances for precipitation through the remainder of the period.
Temperatures for the remainder of the period should be more
seasonable...with highs in the 80s and lows in the lower 60s through
the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Chances of scattered
showers/thunderstorms overnight near DVL, and for the rest of the
TAF sites on Monday. Coverage makes the chances a bit too low to
include at this time. South winds tonight, turning northwest
tomorrow after front passes west to east across the area. Low
level jet strengthening overnight in the northern Red River Valley
may yield LLWS concerns.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...BP



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