000
FXUS63 KFGF 152038
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PCPN ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS MAIN JET IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SASK AND IS MOVING EAST INTO
MANITOBA. SFC LOW PRESSURE IS REFLECTED OVER SRN PART OF CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BETWEEN IT AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WY/SD. THUS...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER
THE FA ATTM BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA. SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING OVER THE FA THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF SFC LOW ACROSS SRN PART
OF MANITOBA. EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN TO CROSS THE
NRN PART OF THE FA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY SO INCLUDED IN
THE GRIDS. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE JET ALOFT AND PERSISTENT ZONAL
FLOW...EXPECT STACKED LOW TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU MONDAY. THE
SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS OUT BY TUESDAY AND SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
70S DURING THE DAY AND 50S AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUTTING FA IN RETURN FLOW
AND WARM ADVECTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WARM ADVECTION PCPN
ALTHOUGH CHANCES SEEM SLIM. LITTLE BETTER CHANCES LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS REGION STARTS GETTING INTO SOME WEAK MID LEVEL SW
FLOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME HIGH BASED SCT-
BKN CU DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. THESE TOO WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER