Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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394
FXUS63 KFGF 181134
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

ONLY UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTH. ROAD CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA APPEAR TO BE OK...BUT
SOME OBS HAVE BEEN COMING IN WITH DZ WITH TEMPS AT 32. MUST BE
LOSING THE ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ABOVE...AS LOWER PART OF
ATMOSPHERE IS WARMER THAN -10C INDICATING LIKELY SUPERCOOLED
LIQUID ONLY. AS SUN RISES...CONCERN FOR ROADS WILL DECREASE AS
ROADS WILL SEE SLIGHT WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND
TEMPERATURES. AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE UPPER LOW...RAIN
...SNOW...AND SOME SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THIS MORNING.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN EAST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL. WILL KEEP WSW GOING FOR DVL BASIN UNTIL 7 AM...PRIMARILY
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN WITHIN WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY IN THE
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA PER THE NAM AND HRRR...WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING BANDS BEYOND THAT. TEMPS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME
RISING WITH THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY. WILL LIKELY SEE A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPS DROP INTO THE
MID 20S NW TO LOWER 30S SE. THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE 50S ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGH PRESSURE WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MOST BULLISH WITH
SOME SHOWERS ON SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FA...WITH MOST AREAS
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS...AND BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS STRONG INVERSION
BETWEEN 4000 AND 9000 FEET HAS BROUGHT SOME SLEET TO THE AREA.
DRIZZLE ALSO IS BEING REPORTED. BELIEVE MOST PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW...HOWEVER THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
THAT IT MAY STAY AS DRIZZLE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISAPPEAR.
EITHER WAY...PRECIP COMES TO AN END THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES
EXCEPT BJI...WHERE -SN OR PERHAPS -DZ COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND SKIES CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED SMALLER TRIBUTARIES TO RISE OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TWO RIVERS RIVER AT HALLOCK IS FORECAST TO
RISE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE...WITH SEVERAL OTHER FORECAST POINTS IN
THE VALLEY IN ACTION STAGE. THERE HAS BEEN UPWARDS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAIN IN WADENA COUNTY...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT HERE. THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY WITH SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPS...THAT SHOULD CAUSE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RECEDE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-016-
     026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024.

MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001>004-007-
     029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
HYDROLOGY...DK



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