Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241852
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
152 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Staying very busy staying on top of the heavy snow moving through
the northern Red River Valley. Have adjusted the winter weather
advisory to open up the snowfall ranges a tad more, going with up
to 5 inches possible in some narrow areas. Web cams northeast of
Grafton were showing fist sized snowflakes falling there, where
radar had been showing high intensity (red) echoes. Still seems
like the trend on the line is to move eastward, which does limit
how much snow one location can get, with warm ground conditions.
Current advisory goes until 3 pm, so will see how far to the east
northeast the line gets by then. If it is still going, may have to
extend the advisory in time a little more.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Challenge for today will be SFC low and inverted trough
positioning with the question being where the all snow line
maintains itself in the Devils Lake basin. Will be issuing a
winter weather advisory for the threat of some icy glaze
conditions and accumulating snow across the Devils Lake basin and
into the western portions of Walsh and Pembina Counties.

Satellite imagery this morning is showing the short wave
approaching the high plains with western high plains radars
beginning to some the developing precipitation expected to reach
the western FA by 12Z. This first round of precip may fall as a
mix with SFC temps around 30 in the Devils Lake basin. As the
precipitation lifts north an intensifies accumulating snow is
expected to develop with 3 to 5 inches possible across the
northern portions of Devils Lake basin, with the highest amounts
expected for Towner and Cavalier counties. Higher amounts are
possible in this area and will need to be monitored for updates.

Elsewhere in the warm sector ahead of the inverted trough and SFC
low winds will become southerly with temps lifting into the 60s in
the WCNTRL MN. As the inverted trough swings through the area
this afternoon and evening showers will develop with rain totals
ranging across the southern half of the FA from trace amounts up
to a quarter of an inch with northern valley and NW MN areas
seeing a quarter to three quarters of an inch total.

Precipitation lifts to the northeast this evening into the
overnight. With northerly winds and cloud cover, a cool Tuesday
is setting up as temps struggle to rise with 30s and low 40s.
Next chance of precipitation moves into the south Tuesday night
with some light snow accumulations possible.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The next 500 mb short wave will move into central/southern Minnesota
Wednesday, spreading precipitation into SE ND and thru most of NW/WC
MN.  Ptype would indicate a chance for some -sn late Wed & Wed eve
especially for areas east of the Red River valley.  This system
departs, though it is noted the 00z Canadian global model wraps up
the low and its it north into NW Ontario and keeps precip in NW MN
into Thursday.  After a little break, next system with chc of rain
arrives for Sunday.  Overall temperatures will remain below normal
thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

The most intense rain is still moving through the KTVF area, but
it should clear there shortly. Some light rain may linger at
KGFK/KFAR/BJI and KTVF into the late afternoon or early evening.
Otherwise, once winds shift to the north, they will bring down IFR
ceilings to the entire FA tonight into Tuesday. These north winds
will be rather gusty later tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ008-
     016.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ004-
     005-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Godon


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