Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200415
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1115 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Latest guidance on both 00Z global models and hi-res models keep
eastern zones dry in the late overnight period. Will pull pops and
focus on potential across south with activity currently in the
Rapid City area. RAP/HRRR bring some morning showers/storms to
SE ND mainly across Sargent and southern Richland counties. Will
use a blend of SREF and HRRR to add POPs. Not expecting much in
way of QPF as not getting any ground truth with echoes entering s
cntrl ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Forecast challenges concern frontal passage overnight and fire
weather concerns for tomorrow.

Cold front entering nw ND and will be crossing the forecast area
late evening and overnight. Airmass ahead of the front will be
relatively unstable however favored upper support remains north of
the border and convergence with low level jet also focused in
southern Canada. Will maintain current pops as shear increases
aft 06z however with high resolution model and CAM guidance on
the dry side will not increase pops. Good push of cold advection
behind boundary along with about 35 kts at 925 mb however not much
of an adiabatic layer off the deck so unsure of how much of this
can mix down.

Fire weather concerns tomorrow as much drier low level air works
into the fa behind front with dewpoints in the 40s. With cooler
column temperatures will not be as warm. Also winds aloft relax so
do not anticipate any serious gusts and surface winds at 10kts or
so. Will monitor trends but at this point we should be ok.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

The new work week will start out with a 500 mb wave passing through
bringing minor precipitation chances to the area. Not much for
impacts as any areas that do see precipitation shouldn`t see much.
However, there is the potential for plenty of cloud cover with the
increased moisture to inhibit the solar eclipse viewing on Monday.

The remainder of the work week looks to be pleasant and dry for the
most part as surface high pressure and upper ridging build in.
Breezy southerly winds late in the week will pull in increasing
moisture and better precipitation chances as the upper ridging moves
off to the east.

Slightly below temperatures are expected through the week (highs in
the 70s and lows in the low to mid 50s) before warming up a bit
closer to the 80 mark towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1113 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A wind shift will occur around the time or just before 06Z TAFs go
into effect. Sites east of DVL currently seeing a southerly
component will see a shift to the W then NW in the 05Z to 06Z
timeframe...then NW through remainder of night and NW-WNW on
Sunday. Other than that, VFR with potential for an early morning
shower south of FAR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Speicher
SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Lee
AVIATION...Speicher


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