Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 062353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
553 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Issued at 553 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Have gotten some reports of near zero visibilities in open country
across the southern Red River Valley. Looking at web cams and sfc
obs, it looks like a ground blizzard down there. Therefore
conditions will be bad in open country, but much better in
sheltered areas or in town. For this reason, have gone with a
blizzard warning across the southern Red River Valley as well.
Also elected to extend all headlines into Wednesday morning as
well. Wind speeds will continue to gust overnight, with no let up
in sight. Conditions always deteriorate more at night too.
Sometimes there is a lull before sunrise, then a little more
deterioration again into the early morning. For that reason, have
gone with 15z as the end time for now. Later shifts can adjust as
need be.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Winter storm continues to create blizzard conditions across much
of eastern ND and into parts of NW MN. Upper wave and SFC low
starting to make some headway finally moving east with over the
last couple hours with the low centered between Fosston and
Bemidji. 925mb winds on the southwest side of the continue to mix
to the sfc with area METARS showing persistent gusts at Fargo and
Valley City in the 40 to 45kt range and 35 kts at Grand Forks and
Devils Lake. These winds combined with area snowfall totals of up
to 12 to 15 inches across the north central RRV and continuous
light snow from the elongated deformation zone are producing
widespread whiteout conditions. I29 and I94 are closed north and
west of Fargo along with Hwy 2 west of Grand Forks to Lakota.

Light snow under the def zone will continue into the evening and
overnight ever so slowly weakening in the west and sliding east.
An additional 1 to 4 inches are possible overnight. Cyclonic flow
will continue to create enough lift for light snow throughout the
day on Wednesday with another round of 1 to 2 inch accumulations.
Winds will gradually lessen however some blowing snow will
continue into the overnight. Temperatures will remain rather
steady overnight falling a few degrees from current readings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Deep layered cyclonic flow will still be evident Wednesday night
into early Thursday with some residual snow shower activity. Winds
will still be up through the daylight hours as northwest flow takes
hold reflected at surface by NW winds at 10-15 kts. We`ll dip below
zero Thur night for first time in a long while as combination of
easing gradient/winds, at least partly cloudy skies and plenty of
snow cover ease the mercury as low as 10 below over the Devils Lake
basin. 1040 mb high on Friday should keep it dry and cold with 850
mb temps at minus 15 to 20 yielding surface readings in single
numbers above zero.

For the weekend and into early next week zonal flow develops
with a couple of shortwaves moving through quickly. The strongest
model signal for accumulating snow is around the late
Saturday/early Sunday period; this time the southern valley would
appear to be favored. Temperatures will moderate a bit ahead of
the first wave, although this will mean highs only in the teens
for most places on Saturday. The passage of the first feature with
potential reinforcement by Monday will bring single digit highs
back for Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 553 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Have extended the blizzard warning for KFAR/KGFK/KDVL/KTVF until
15z Wednesday. Therefore stuck in 1/4 mile vsbys for these four
TAFs until then. Not sure how much improvement will occur during
the day Wednesday, with the models indicating more light snow is
possible. However, wind speeds will decrease some, so a little
improvement is likely. KBJI will see steady light snow but better
vsbys and slightly lower wind speeds.


ND...Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for NDZ006>008-014>016-

MN...Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ001>004-007-008-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ017-023-

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ005-006-009-



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