Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182155
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
355 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

One band of heavy snow is still exiting portions of northcentral
MN as a second is entering central SD... both associated with the
large low pressure system now settling into the southwest corner
of Minnesota. Deformation zone snow which developed overnight
north of the warm front and ahead of this low managed to spread a
band of from 4 to 12 inches of snow largely between the Highway
200 and Highway 2 corridors from eastern ND into and across
northwest MN. A second batch of mid level energy moving into the
western Dakotas now... should catch up with and reinvigorate that
surface low pressure system and spread additional snow into and
across southern and eastern portions of the FA from late Monday
into Tuesday.

For tonight... expect north winds to steadily decrease and cloud
to thin as cold air advection pushes into the area from the
north. Some clearing is expected across the north... so that lows
should push into the minus single digits by morning there.
Southeast ND into west central MN... should see increasing mid
clouds overnight and retain a bit more heat overnight... staying
above the zero mark.

Monday will see some sun in the north early... with increasing
clouds through the day as the next system approaches. Highs will
struggle into the single digits north and into the low teens
south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 348
PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Monday night through Tuesday night... An upper level trough moves
into the Upper Midwest late Monday into Tuesday bringing with it our
next chance for snow. There is good agreement in the models in the
general pattern for this next event. Despite the agreement in the
general pattern there are differences in how far north the snow
occurs and in exact totals. The main area of impacts at this time
looks to be in southeast North Dakota and west central Minnesota as
despite model differences they all hit this area. The ECMWF and NAM
are taking the snow farther north and also have generally higher QPF
than the GFS and CMC. Looking towards ensembles GEFS and SREF plumes
for Fargo still show a wide range of QPFs.

The temperature over this period is generally cooler than normal
with values 10 to 15 degrees cooler than normal. The coldest period
will be on Tuesday night when wind chill values could become
dangerous once again.

Wednesday through Sunday... High pressure sets in after the early
week`s snow. Cooler temperatures on Wednesday before a warm up into
normal temperatures for the rest of the week. Some light snow will
be possible Friday associated with a shortwave aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Updated at 348 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

In eastern ND and the Red River Valley corridor...expect areas of
MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in light snow and blowing snow thru late
afternoon. North winds gusting to 30kts should diminish into the
14g22kt range with nightfall... with VFR ceiling and vsbys through
the overnight into Monday morning. Across northwest MN... expect
widespread MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in light snow and blowing snow into
early evening. Winds will diminish from the west through early
evening... with VFR CIGS and VSBYS after 03z. Light snow is
expected to develop across the southern FA after 15z on Monday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...NC
AVIATION...Gust



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