Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192133
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
333 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

CHALLENGES WILL BE THE RISK OF FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ONE SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER SOUTHEAST OF BISMARCK AT MID AFTN PRODUCING A SMALL
AREA OF BRIEF LIGHT SNOW IN FAR SE ND MOVING INTO WCNTRL MN IN THE
WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS AREA. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG...MOST PREVELENT NORTH OF DEVILS
LAKE EAST TOWARD CAVALIER. AS SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST...EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
RISK OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IS THERE....BUT INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NOT AS GREAT AS THIS TIME LAST WEEK SO NOT EXPECTING A
GREAT DEAL OF PRECIP. MORE MIST THAN ANYTHING. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
FALL ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT. QUESTION FOR SATURDAY WILL BE PRECIP
CHANCES. UPPER LOW IN SOUTHEASTERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
AND PROVIDE SOME RISK OF LIGHT SNOW TO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. SHORT WAVE IN
ND/SD BORDER ALSO MOVING EAST. THUS SHOULD BE A BREAK SATURDAY
LATE MORNING-AFTN BEFORE NEXT SHORT WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
DOUBT MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR BUT HOPEFULLY ENOUGH REDUCTION IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO HELP CLEAR OUT THE FOG AND MIST. NEXT SHORT
WAVE DUE SATURDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND MAYBE FREEZING DRIZZLE ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

SUNDAY MAY SEE SOME CLEARING INTO WRN FCST AREA BUT OTHERWISE
REMAINING CLOUDY. KEPT SOME LINGERING LOW POPS IN NE FCST AREA PER
PREV FCST AS SHORT WAVE EXISTS. THEN HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO
MONDAY AND BEYOND BECOMES THE ISSUE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FARTHER WEST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND THUS A BIT MORE PRECIP
INTO THE RRV-NW MN MONDAY AFTN. SO UPPED POPS TO BLEND WITH OTHER
OFFICES. QUITE UNSURE OF COURSE OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM.

A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WILL EXTEND INTO MON NIGHT AND BRING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. MODELS OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FOR THE SYSTEM AS
IT IS 3 DAYS OUT...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE THE EASTERN
ZONES AS IT CLIMBS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GRT LKS AND WRAP
AROUND PRECIPITATION FORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON THU AND BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE CURRENT
TIME THIS SYSTEMS SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TO THE LOWER
THIRD OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE THE FIRST SYSTEM PULLS COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA...BRINGING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE TEENS FOR CHRISTMAS.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

IFR TO LIFR CONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. VSBYS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 SM HOWEVER GOING DOWN TO 1 SM TO 3 SM
IN FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER





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