Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261725
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1225 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Made a few tweaks to clouds as cirrus has been moving into the
west a bit further north than expected, but no really big changes
to the going forecast. Some showers should start entering the
southwestern CWA later this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 937 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

No major changes for the going forecast. Still looks on track for
clear skies this morning giving way to more clouds and a few
showers this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Updated near term grids based on latest trends. Otherwise, rest
of forecast looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

The forecast for today starts off with a high at the surface over
SD and southern MN...drifting east. There may be a few areas of
patchy fog early this morning...mainly in MN. A weak upper wave
is moving across the area this morning...with a stronger wave over
MT setting its eyes on the Northern Plains. Mostly sunny skies
this morning will give way to increased cloud cover and highs in
the 70s this afternoon as this wave approaches. A few showers will
move into SE ND this evening...followed by some thunderstorms
after midnight. MU CAPES will be generally under 500 J/kg...with a
southwesterly low level jet in place ahead of the main upper wave
helping push higher theta-e air into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Showers and a few thunderstorms will likley be ongoing in the Red
River Valley early Saturday morning ahead of the upper wave. This
wave will move through the area mainly during the afternoon
hours...when 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and 20-30 kts of deep shear
will be in place. The best shear looks to be in the south...where
a marginal risk of severe storms exists. With the wave moving east
quickly during the afternoon...thunderstorms will be possible only
early in the evening in the far east before moving out of the
area. On Sunday...a strong wave will pass to the north of the
area...but at the surface a warm front is expected to lift
northward into the area ahead of an approaching cold front.
Despite a lack of upper support...there is enough instability and
deep shear...combined with a boundary and marginal CIN to support
the possibility of a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday
like the GFS seems to support. Highs will warm into the 80s on
Sunday along with an increase in humidity.

Upper level troughs proximal to the east and west coasts will be
bookends for a building upper ridge over the central CONUS during
the extended forecast period. The ridge will be reflected at the
surface by warming temperatures to a bit above seasonal averages and
perhaps a couple of convective intervals. There is evidence that a
pair of shortwaves will move through this flow particularly on
Wednesday and Thursday. The more pronounced of the two will quite
possibly undercut the ridge on Thursday, offering better convective
potential at that time. The gridded forecast describes this
potential by offering slight pops the first 36 hrs or so followed by
steadily increasing chances Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

VFR conditions continue at all TAF sites as cirrus is starting to
make its way into the western forecast area. Some ceilings will be
possible later in the period, but at this point think that levels
will stay above 5000 ft through tomorrow morning. Short range
models have precip moving into the area oriented from southwest to
northeast by the early morning hours tomorrow. Will include a VCSH
mention for KFAR and KBJI, as instability during the morning will
be low and thunderstorms will be few and far between with better
chances after the TAF period. Winds will stay mostly south to
southwest at less than 12 kts.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JR



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