Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180441

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1141 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Maintained current forecast as is. Greatest uncertainty remains
potential for snowfall. Guidance currently indicating that thermal
profiles will make it difficult for significant accumulations.
However favored qg forcing lining up with f-gen forcing through
the central valley at 09-12z time frame. Low confidence at this
point if strong mesoscale forcing can overcome expected warm
column to produce a band of significant snowfall and where this
sets up still uncertain so later shifts will have to adjust if

UPDATE Issued at 935 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Changes this update period were to add thunder to the sw FA.
Lightning strikes just to the sw of the forecast area and with a
couple hundred j/kg of mu cape and respectable forcing with wave
will include thunder this area the remainder of the evening. Also
adjusted temperature trends across the nw which are holding up
than earlier forecast and may have an impact on snow potential
which at this time is the biggest uncertainty with current

UPDATE Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Only changes in the early stage of the event will be to delay pops
an hour or two based on current radar imagery and high resolution
model guidance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Surface high pressure centered across Minnesota this afternoon
will support generally fair skies along with light and variable
winds well into the early evening hours over western and central
Minnesota... with some lingering low level cumulus/stratocumulus
clouds across far northwest Minnesota and the northern end of the

Clouds will increase from the west through the late afternoon and
early evening across eastern North Dakota and reaching into the
Red River Valley by nightfall. A low pressure /storm/ system now
approaching from central MT should bring steadily increasing
clouds with scattered rainshowers developing into central and
southeast ND by early evening... then spreading across northwest
and west central Minnesota during the late evening and overnight.
Widespread light rain is expected during the overnight across most
of the area... with rainfall tapering off from the west through
Tuesday forenoon.

A rain and snow mix is possible late tonight and early Tuesday
morning generally north of the Highway 2 corridor. A half an inch
to an inch of snow accumulation is possible over grassy areas closer
to the Canadian border... though snow should melt fairly quickly
on the morrow. Total rainfall amounts could approach from half an
inch to an inch across most of the area...with somewhat lesser
amounts closer to the Canadian and South Dakota borders.

On Tuesday... expect winds turning from the north and increasing
as a cold front pushes through behind this low pressure system.
Rain should end by noon in eastern North Dakota and through
midafternoon in northwest Minnesota. Highs should stretch into
the mid and upper 40s north and the lower to mid 50s south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Zonal flow will set up across the region for midweek with surface
high pressure setting up across central Manitoba and northwest
Ontario. A decent upper wave and associated surface low are
progged to move across portions of the Northern Plains states on
Wednesday/Thursday. At this time, the greatest forcing and
associated precipitation looks to remain just south of the area,
more into South Dakota and central/southern Minnesota with just
some light showers across our far southern forecast area.

The end of the work week and much of the weekend will bring just a
few small chances for scattered showers with upper ridging keeping
things quiet across much of the area.

Models begin to diverge much more on their solutions by the end of
the weekend with some signs of a more active period to start the new
work week.

Seasonable temperatures will continue (highs in the 50s and lows in
the 30s) until late in the week where some locations might see some
60+ degree readings again (especially south).


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Upstream cigs still remain VFR however guidance lowers cigs
through the overnight as column saturates and generally followed
but mainly kept cigs in mvfr ranges. Kept T out of FAR TAF however
this will have to monitored as it could be close. Conditions to
improve from west to east from late morning on with progressive
nature of system.




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