Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 240431
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

MAIN CHANGES WERE TO TONE DOWN THUNDERSTORM WORDING MAINLY NORTH OF
I-94 WITH LACK OF INSTABILITY/CAPE. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF
SEVERE ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WITH CELLS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. STILL POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN WITH FAVORED AREA ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN FA. OTHERWISE
MADE SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

NO UPDATE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN TEMPS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH NO PREFERENCE TODAY.

FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES
OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE A BAND OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST SD AROUND 00-02Z...AND THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO OUR REGION. THE MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WIND...SOME LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY
WEAK...SO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. THIS WOULD
MEAN A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...BUT STILL SOMETHING TO
MONITOR IF SFC BASED INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IF TRAINING
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AS WELL.

FOR SUNDAY...THE SFC AND UPPER LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTH AND EAST...CLOSER
TO THE SFC BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW NORMAL.
THERE COULD BE SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...OTHERWISE
EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY DAY WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN. MODELS INDICATE A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A SHOWER IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTH...AND WILL KEEP A MENTION. IF TRENDS CONTINUE
THOUGH...THESE POPS WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SPLIT FLOW WILL BE ON TAP AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. PRECIP SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH...BUT KEPT SOME LOW POPS
IN THE SOUTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TO BLEND. THE LAST PART
OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AS THE MODELS ALL BRING THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF HAVE
ANOTHER NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH. ALL THE
MODELS HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SFC
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AM NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
WEAK SHORTWAVES AND WARM ADVECTION...KEPT LOW POPS GOING THAT THE
ALL BLEND GIVES US FOR NEXT SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL START OUT BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WARM UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

CIGS VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE FA HOWEVER STILL FEEL CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AM. VSBY
LIKELY TO STAY MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY BR ACROSS THE WESTERN FA WHICH
WILL SEE RAIN ENDING FIRST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/JR
AVIATION...VOELKER





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.