Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231457
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
957 AM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The surface cold front is currently located over central ND, with
gusty south winds out ahead of it. Sfc dew points remain in the
60s and temps are expected to climb into the 80s today. There are
still showers and tstms along a KJMS to KCKN to KROX line, which
seems to correspond well with the focus area of the low level jet.
This jet is still about 30 to 35 knots, and the models slowly lift
this up through northwest MN through the late morning and early
afternoon. With this jet in place, some of the high resolution
models keep scattered showers and tstms over the central Red River
Valley up into northwest MN through the late morning and early
afternoon.

Question is then what happens along the cold front. This still is
set to move into the Red River Valley by the late afternoon. The
SPC day 1 severe outlook keeps a marginal risk over areas along
and east of the Red River Valley. Like yesterday, all ingredients
do not appear to be coming together for an ideal severe weather
episode. The best CAPE will be along and east of the cold front,
while the best shear will be west of the front. The main 500mb low
will remain over southern Saskatchewan, keeping better upper level
lift out there. Despite that, some of the high resolution models
do develop convection along the front. However, they do not show
much development until around 6 pm this evening, and only limited
coverage as it slowly moves into the northwest quarter of MN
during the evening. So will continue to monitor as more model data
comes in today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

small cluster of elevated storms formed nr carrington ND last
evening moved east-northeast to near Mayville then a storm within
that cluster took off and moved nearly due north into west side of
grand forks producing a long period of quarter to golf ball hail.

Will maintain isold tstm coverage for this thru 12z-13z into the
far nrn RRV. Storm formed in area of quite strong 850 mb moisture
advection which is shown nicely on SPC meso page.

for the balance of this morning once the current storm is gone it
should be quiet. Low pressure in north central ND and cold front
will enter DVL basin this morning and into the RRV mid to late
aftn. Initially not much will form until late aftn as front
encounters deeper moisture in srn RRV into NW MN. Thus pops
highest this area early evening.

No one meso model has been doing well. HRRR does keep some
development this aftn nr GFK and other action northeast of DVL and
then develops more as front moves east into W MN. That goes along
with fcst. Best bulk shear is right near or just behind front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

T-storm changes exits eastern fcst late tonight/early Wednesday.
Then a break before cooler air/stratocu and risk of showers wrap
back southeast into nrn 1/2 of fcst area late Wednesday into
Thursday.

Friday to Monday...Southwest flow aloft will develop and bring
chances for convection for the period. timing the waves will be a
challenge. Current indications are that Friday afternoon into
Saturday and again Sunday night into Monday will be times where
shower activity is more probable. Temperatures will be in the mid
70s to around 80 for the weekend...spot on the normal for the end of
August in the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Issue is location of t-storms thru the pd. Elevated convection
this morning may impact GFK and FAR locations thru 15z. Otherwise
VFR with mostly high and mid clouds. Frontal timing and wind shift
to move into DVL region midday and east into the RRV late this
aftn/eve reaching BJI area nr 06z.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle



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