Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 220437
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1137 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Just a few minor tweaks to sky grids to account for a brief area
of clearing pushing into the western forecast area. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 940 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Only change for this update was to cut back on PoPs a bit for the
rest of the evening and early overnight. Areal coverage of
precipitation has decreased quite a bit with just some scattered
light rain or drizzle reports. Still think things will become more
widespread later tonight and towards morning as the upper low
tracks back to the west and allows the better forcing to return.

UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Not much for updates needed early this evening. Scattered light
showers continue up and down the majority of the Red River Valley
and over into northwestern Minnesota. Latest hi-res runs keep
these showers moving from northwest to southeast as the 500 mb low
continues to slowly propagate towards far northern
Minnesota/southwestern Ontario. This movement should keep the far
western forecast area and extreme southern valley dry throughout
the evening and into the overnight before the low begins to
retrograde a bit back towards our area.

Will have to keep an eye on temperatures as we head into the
overnight as readings are still hanging into the low to mid 50s
(with the exception of the cooler 40s across the far east).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Area will be under the influence of an 500 mb low which will be
over Minnesota into Monday. The center of the low is advancing
north this mid aftn into the arrowhead region and this upper low
will move north into Ontario then west and back south into north
central MN Monday aftn. Scattered rain showers will continue
around the upper low...tonight more confined to areas east and
north of a Langdon-Grand Forks-Wadena line...then threat for
showers will increase Monday midday-aftn in NW MN as center of low
moves close by. Net result was to keep sct rw- thru the night into
Monday RRV and NW MN, with a period higher pops NW MN Monday aftn.

To the west an upper wave is moving south thru Saskatchewan and
this will drop south thru the next 24 hrs thru wrn ND into SD.
Scattered showers and t-storms with this will stay west of our
fcst area. Thus Devils Lake-Valley City region mostly in between
these two systems thru Monday and has less chance for rain. Temps
will remain below normal daytime Monday...though some sunny breaks
DVL region into SE ND should push that area into the low 60s vs
50s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 319 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

500 mb low will drop south Monday night into Tuesday. Continued
chc of showers Monday night and then improving weather Tuesday
from the northwest as the upper low departs. Wednesday will see
sunshine return and warmer temps as a brief ridge builds in.

For Thursday and Friday...expect temperatures in the low 70s ahead
of a low pressure system slowly shifting east across the area
bringing increased chances for showers or storms. By Saturday and
Sunday...the system continues progressing east with an upper trof
shifting over the area...bringing slightly cooler temperatures to
the region. A few weak disturbances will propagate around the base
of the trof...triggering periods of light precipitation through
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

Plenty of low level moisture and associated clouds will remain
across the region through the TAF period. The worst conditions
will be across northwest Minnesota with MVFR ceilings (possibly
brief IFR) at KTVF and KBJI. Low end VFR will continue at KGFK
and return to KDVL and KFAR as the overnight continues. Rainfall
chances throughout the period will be fairly scattered so have
elected to keep out for now with the exception of some VCSH to
cover the scattered sprinkles currently ongoing. Northwest winds
of 5-10 kts tonight will begin to turn more northerly by morning
and increase to 10-15 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lee
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Hopkins/Riddle
AVIATION...Lee



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.