Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 300429
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE ONLY CHANGE WILL BE TO CHANGE ANY SNOW MENTION LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING TO JUST RAIN. THERMAL FIELDS SUPPORT ALL
RAIN WITH ANY LIGHT QPF THAT FALLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY PCPN CHANCES TOMORROW AND
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

CLEARING AND DIMINISHING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP TO
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN MID LEVEL NW FLOW TOMORROW. LOWEST
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM GFS 290K
SURFACE FAVOR BEST PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NE FA SO INCREASED POPS
IN THIS AREA. COULD INITIALLY BE A MIX BUT OVERALL PCPN SHOULD BE
LIQUID. COLUMN WARMS DURING THE DAY SO MODERATING TEMPERATURE
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE.

WAVE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND WITH CLEARING AND
LIGHT WINDS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN DROP INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FA EARLY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING
FOR RETURN/FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

NEXT WAVE WILL AFFECT THE FA WEDNESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER S CANADA SO WITH BEST UPPER SUPPORT NORTH OF THE BORDER WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINED LOW POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH
THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE FA DURING THE DAY...DEPENDING ON
SOLAR SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER. HOWEVER...THERE MAY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF
AFFECTING THE NORTH IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. COLD AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...BRINGING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE
40S FOR HIGHS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
SECOND SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REINFORCE THE
COOLER AIR IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THERE WILL BE A BAND OF VFR CIGS AFFECTING THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 25KT AT TIMES ONCE FULL
MIXING IS REALIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK





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