Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 041851
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Light snow continuing to push east into NW MN this afternoon.
SFC trough is pushing across the valley where winds have turned to
the west with a clearing line farther back to the west from Minot
down to east of Bismarck into SE ND. The question remains how far
east clearing line makes it and the impact on temps overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Several different 500 mb short waves to deal with this early
morning. The first one moving quickly northeast over Lake Superior
brought up the band of light snow into MN forecast area this past
evening. A second short wave is noted in south central ND with a
third near the MB/ND/SK border region. A band of light snow with
these short waves moving into the RRV prior to dawn. Overall main
models have these ideas presented well with this second band of
light precipitation exiting the RRV 12z-15z and then the far
eastern fcst area early this aftn. Just ahead of this last short
wave/precip band is an area of low level moisture and south-
southeast winds and drizzle and pockets of light freezing drizzle.
So maintained idea of this mix of precip thru 15z in the RRV and
east. Temps are mostly 30-35 range so impacts are manageable.

Some clearing may yet try to advance east-northeast into the
southwest fcst area this aftn but otherwise cloudy. Temps not
doing much with mostly low to mid 30s as winds turn west-
northwest. 925 mb do cool a bit as winds turn WNW.

Quiet tonight. Cloud cover in question with some chances for a
period of clearing into SE ND or wcntrl MN, before next area of
clouds moves in ahead of the next short wave.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

00z model suite overall went weaker with the system for Mon night.
NAM and GFS models dont dig the short wave south as doesnt
interact with 500 mb short wave energy over the central Rockies.
Thus more focus on a northern low along ND/MB border region into
southeastern Manitoba. Most of the snow in this case stays along
and north of the intl border. 00z ECMWF is a bit weaker but does
have some southern stream influence with sfc low developing east
of Fargo and lifting northeast, much as the models have done
on prior days runs. It still puts heaviest snow in Manitoba but
several inches in NE ND. SREF continues quite weak overall, which
has been the case for the last several runs. GEM global model
remains farther south and a more southern short wave influence
with low developing to our southeast and moving northeast into NE
MN. This solution continues to put more moisture into the RRV of
ND/MN. Thus with still considerable spread in qpf in models...use
of superblend in qpf/snowfall/pop is best soln. This would give
2-4 inches in NE ND and far NW MN.

Good mixed layer Tuesday on the southwest side of the sfc low so
went toward the higher end of sfc winds Tuesday with 25kts or so
sustained psbl DVL region and kept mention of blowing snow.
Considering lower snow totals as forecast...feel event will turn
into advisory and thus no headlines at the moment.

Wednesday Night and Thursday... With a broad H5 trof stretching
across central and eastern NOAM expect lingering cloud cover and
periods of light snow from Wednesday evening through midday
Thursday. Temperatures should bottom out some 10 to 15 degrees below
seasonal normals through this midweek cold spell... with lowest
overnight temperatures either Thursday or Friday morning... brushing
near to below zero in select areas. Colder air move in Tues
night-Wed with clouds, wind and lingering light snow/flurries.

Friday into Sunday... the transition back to some near normal
temperatures follows on the passage of a fast H5 shortwave ridge on
Friday and a subsequent flat H5 zonal flow pattern for the next
weekend. At this point... Friday looks like the most likely day for
fair skies and overall dry conditions. Next Saturday and Sunday
should see increasing cloud cover and another brush with some light
snow... along with a return to a near normal early December
temperature regime.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

GFK and FAR currently at MVFR with DVL and TVF expected to improve
this afternoon as BR lifts. MVFR conditions expected to persist
overnight with clearing line from the west approaching. Current
thinking is that it will reach only FAR overnight. VFR at FAR and
MVFR elsewhere except IFR at BJI overnight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Gust/Riddle
AVIATION...JK



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