Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 212102
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FA TONIGHT. AS OF MID AFTERNOON A CLEAR HOLE
HAD FORMED DOWN AROUND GWINNER WHERE THE TEMP HAD RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE CLOUDY/FOGGY CONDITIONS REMAINED WITH TEMPS
UNIFORMLY IN THE 30-33F RANGE. STILL HAVE A LITTLE THICKER FOG ON
THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE FA. SFC LOW TAKING SHAPE OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MT WITH MILD AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT...QUITE A FEW UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40 TEMPS EVEN INTO CENTRAL ND. 850MB TEMPS IN THE 1-4C RANGE
OVER ALL OF ND CURRENTLY AND MODELS SLOWLY WORK THOSE EAST
OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPS CURRENTLY BELOW ZERO BUT MODELS WORK THE 0C
LINE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW MID 30 TEMPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND WE KEEP
THE SOUTH/SE SFC WINDS TONIGHT. THEREFORE THINK THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH AGAIN AND TEMPS WILL STAY MILD. AS LIGHT
PCPN MOVES IN THIS EVENING IT MAY START OUT IN MAINLY LIQUID FORM.
SREF PCPN TYPES SHOW MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. IF THE LIGHT PCPN MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT MAY FALL
AS MORE OF A MIX. FOR THIS REASON DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT IN ANY
SORT OF ADVISORY AT THIS POINT BUT PLAN TO CONTINUE THE SPS. COULD
STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN OR MIXED PCPN TYPES INTO MONDAY. MAIN
ISSUE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS THE SFC LOW TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH.
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD GOOD CONTINUITY SO CONFIDENCE ON SNOW BAND
PLACEMENT IS LOW. HOWEVER BY MONDAY MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT A
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND...BUT DIFFER ON WHEN AND
HOW MUCH. A LITTLE BETTER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS MON NIGHT OVER
EASTERN ND. THEREFORE A COUPLE OF INCHES STILL LOOKS LIKELY OVER
EASTERN ND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

THIS BAND OR DEFORMATION SNOW AREA REMAINS OVER EASTERN ND INTO
TUE. STILL LOOKING AT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR SO.
WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE GUSTY OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NW MN ON TUE BUT MODELS NOT LOOKING OVERLY STRONG.
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST BY TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT AND QUITE A BIT
COLDER THAN WE HAVE BEEN RECENTLY. THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT DETAILS
OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. A SFC LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
TO OUR WEST CHRISTMAS EVE. PREVIOUS RUNS KEPT THAT SYSTEM WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AS IT MOVES EAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THE GFS IS NOW
BRINGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SD BORDER WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF
OVER THE CWA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEP THE SYSTEM
SOUTH AND NAEFS MEMBERS SHOW THE SFC LOW POSITION RANGING FROM OVER
OUR CWA TO THE TX PANHANDLE TO NOT THERE AT ALL. WITH THE HIGH
ENSEMBLE SPREAD...WILL KEEP WHAT THE ALLBLEND GIVES US WITH SOME LOW
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY WILL BE
MORE DRY BUT COLD AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPS SHOULD BE
BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE NEGATIVE RANGE. THE
GFS HAS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH AND DEVELOPING SOME
PRECIP FOR SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF VARIATION BETWEEN THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CHANCE FOR A SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

STRATUS HAS FINALLY MADE ITS WAY INTO KDVL...LEAVING ALL TAF SITES
IFR OR LIFR THIS AFTERNOON. THINK THAT THE STRATUS WILL NOT BE GOING
ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOISTURE FLOW CONTINUING AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW SITES HAVE VIS ABOVE 6SM
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINK THAT SOME LIGHT MIST WILL BRING EVERYONE
DOWN TO 3-5SM BY THIS EVENING. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE DOWN INTO SD
LATE TONIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG FORMATION AND EVEN SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW KEPT JUST 1SM WITH BR FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE KFAR
REGION JUST BEFORE 12Z. TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN JUST
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. FOR NOW WENT WITH A LIGHT RAIN SNOW MIX BUT
WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER. THE IFR OR LOWER
CIGS AND VIS ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...JR






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