Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011151
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MORE CLOUD COVER THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...AND RAP 850MB-700MB RH FIELD SUGGESTS THESE MID-CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR TODAY...ALTHOUGH NOT SURE THIS WILL AFFECT
TEMPERATURES GIVEN SUFFICIENT MIXING. SPEAKING OF MIXING...IT
WILL BE A BREEZY/WINDY AFTERNOON WITH MIXING TO AROUND 850MB AND
30 KNOTS TO MIX.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THE CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. 00Z MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN ALTHOUGH THERE DOES
REMAIN SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE UPPER WAVES. ONE IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS CANADA...AND WHILE THE STRONGEST FORCING FROM
THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
PROVIDE STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING INTO NE
ND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
WEAK...AND ONLY A STRONGER STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING (FOR MAINLY NE ND). WITH THAT SAID...UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH HOW SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH...AND COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONGEST PART OF THE WEST COAST RIDGE
WILL APPROACH...AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUE EVENING. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MAIN SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER ON TUE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL
OCCUR PAST PEAK HEATING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY (GIVEN
THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS EXPECTED WITH MODEL INDICATING 850MB
COMPUTED CAPE 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX NEAR
40 KNOTS). THE NORTHERN EXTEND OF ANY SVR WX WILL HINGE ON
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT...AND THE ACTUAL TRACK OF
THE MID- LEVEL LOW. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACK WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF
1-2 INCHES (GIVEN THE STRONG SYNOPTIC TYPE FORCING EXPECTED).

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A DRY/COOL
AIRMASS WILL SHIFT PRECIP CHANCES TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THE REGION.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE.
LONG WAVE PATTERN FORECAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN CANADA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THEN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN AMPLIFIES WITH
A RIDGE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CANADA AFTER DAY 5. LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS WERE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST DESPITE THE LATEST
ECMWF WAS NOT IN YET. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS WERE TRENDING WITH FASTER
SOLUTIONS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE LOWERED ONE TO THREE DEGREE FOR THU AND FRI. LITTLE
CHANGE TO SAT AND SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CIGS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD...BUT MORE LIKELY BEYOND
12Z TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...TG



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