Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 262004
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
304 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter weather advisory continues for our eastern and southern
  counties with minor impacts from light falling and blowing
  snow. Should see some improvement tonight as winds start to
  drop.

- Snow showers will continue into tomorrow across portions of
  northwestern Minnesota, bringing an additional few inches of
  accumulating snow and periodic low visibilities. Minor winter
  travel impacts will return.

- There is a low chance (20 percent) for minor impacts due to
  snow and freezing rain on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Southern branch upper wave continues to lift through the upper
midwest, with the main northern branch trough digging into ND.
Still getting quite a few bands of light snow wrapping around
the backside of the system and into our MN counties, with some
snow shower activity as far west as the Red River Valley with
some weak low level instability and saturation. With the light
snow and strong winds still gusting to 40 mph, will continue to
keep the advisory going through at least 00Z and will see what
happens after. Do expect some improvement tonight as we lose
instability and winds begin to drop, but it may be slower than
originally anticipated.

The northern branch low will move into MN tonight and towards
Lake Superior by Wednesday. With cyclonic flow aloft, there is
plenty of ensemble agreement on continued snow shower activity
over our northwestern MN counties, with some more accumulating
snow possible near Lake of the Woods and Red Lakes. The NBM has
over 70 percent chance of and inch or more in our northwest, and
even a 40 percent chance for 3 inches or more. Winds will be
less than today but still pretty breezy, with some minor winter
impacts due to falling and blowing snow likely. Whether we
extend or reissue to advisory or convert over to SPS will be a
matter of forecaster discretion, but at this point it seems
that nothing will be worse that what we are seeing right now and
a ramp up in messaging is not needed.

Thursday should be briefly quiet as upper ridging moves in
between system. Another shortwave coming over the top of the
ridge will bring some potential winter impacts for Friday, with
ensembles showing a signal for some mixed precipitation. Around
a 20 percent chance for some freezing rain, not high, but any
kind of ice can cause problems so will have to keep an eye on
it. Another lull on Saturday before a fast moving shortwave on
Sunday could bring some more light precipitation, although
predictability is pretty low. Some signs of a drier pattern and
more moderating temperatures as we head into the work week by
the ensemble mean.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

KDVL is expected to remain VFR throughout the forecast period.
There will be a couple of mid level clouds that may float
in and out throughout the period. Convective snow showers may
persist through the night or last through the morning for KFAR
and KGFK. There will be intermittent light snow at times through
the night as the soundings keep the lower levels saturated.
KTVF and KBJI will have light snow persisting the longest as the
remnants of this system moves northeast. So there`s some
uncertainty as to when tomorrow the snow will cease for them.
But for now IFR to intermittent MVFR conditions are expected
through 00z then MVFR conditions will start to prevail.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ003-
     006-009-016-017-023-024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...MM/JR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.