Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231211
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
711 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HRRR WAS RIGHT ON THE MONEY WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTHEAST THRU ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN. THESE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW THEY HOLD TOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORIAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR THRU 12Z SUN. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER TODAY...THICKEST IN THE SRN RRV AND WCNTRL MN. SOUTH
WINDS GENERALLY NR 10 KTS. NO PRECIP PUT IN THE TAFS THRU 12Z SUN
AS BEST CHC IS BEYOND THEN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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