Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280248
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OBS SITES AND WEB CAMS SHOW THAT RAIN HAS BEEN FINALLY FALLING OUT
OF THE STRONGER RADAR RETURNS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MADE
SOME TWEAKS TO POPS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS...AND AS SHORT RANGE
MODELS HAVE WHAT LITTLE THERE IS DISSIPATING BY MORNING CONTINUED
TO TAPER OFF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. TOP DOWN METHOD HAS
SOME SNOW MIXING IN LATE BEFORE EVERYTHING ENDS...AND CANNOT RULE
OUT A FLAKE OR TWO BUT THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE MUCH. TEMPS STILL
SEEM ON TRACK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

ONLY ONE WEB CAM NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER IS SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF
PRECIP DESPITE RADAR RETURNS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POPS WE HAVE GOING.
TEMPS STILL SEEM ON TRACK FOR BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER. RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION IN NE SD MOVING
WNW. AS IT MOVES... THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY RESULT IN RAIN SOUTH OF
FARGO. MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER AND FEW CLOUDS IN
NW MN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY GET DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING
VALUES MAINLY ALONG A LINE FROM BAUDETTE TO PARK RAPIDS. CURRENT
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME TONIGHT... BUT NOT BECOMING CALM
ANYWHERE.

MAIN QUESTION FOR THU REMAINS WHETHER ANY OF THE LIGHT PCPN TO THE
SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA IN THE AREA ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. STILL LOOKS A LOT LIKE TODAY WHERE THE PCPN REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH AND IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN FA IT WOULD BE VERY
LIGHT. THEREFORE THE DAY ITSELF LOOKS VERY SIMILAR WITH MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER THIN CLOUDS AND ANYTHING THICKER ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER. HIGHS ALSO LOOK SIMILAR WITH WINDS TURNING A BIT MORE NE. BY
THU NIGHT CONDITIONS FINALLY DRY OUT ALONG THE 3 BORDER REGION.
WINDS LOOK TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BUT SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER
AROUND. DESPITE THAT TEMPS WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND THE FREEZING
POINT AGAIN SO THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST AROUND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE BATTLE CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY AIR TO THE
NORTH AND PCPN TO THE SOUTH. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
PCPN MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN FA...WHERE THE 12Z RUNS TODAY ARE
TOTALLY DRY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE WILL REMOVE ANY PCPN CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. MAIN QUESTIONS AGAIN WILL PROBABLY BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER REMAINS AS THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN 850MB TEMPS. THIS
GIVES LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 30S WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
BOTH FRI AND SAT. SO OVERALL A PRETTY STAGNANT PATTERN.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL KEEP WEAK FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS...WITH THE RIDGE SLIDING
OVER THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER THE SRN MS VALLEY WILL
FLATTEN OUT BY TUE...SETTING UP ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
AND THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LOOK FOR DRY
WEATHER FROM SUN THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WITH BROKEN CIRRUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AT KFAR...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
GUSTS FROM THE EAST ABOVE 20 KTS. THINK THAT WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE BELOW 12 KTS BY MID
EVENING.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON/HEEREN
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...JR


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