Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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107
FXUS63 KFGF 111829
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A HOLE IN THE CLOUDS NOTED IN FAR NW MN....WITH CLOUDS ON BOTH
SIDES SO WILL LEAVE THAT AREA MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTN. MAIN
CLEARING LINE NORTH OF DAUPHIN-GIMLI MANITOBA DROPPING SOUTH AND
NAM12 RH PROGS INDICATE CLEARING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER REACHING
NRN AREAS MID EVENING. DID TWEEK TEMPS A FEW DEGREES UP BASED ON
CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

COLD WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
COMING DOWN THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO WESTERN ND TODAY. THE MAIN
SFC LOW AND PRECIP BAND WILL BE MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SOME
OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE SOME PRECIP CLIPPING THE RANSOM/SARGENT
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST...BUT THINK THAT IF ANY SNOW OCCURS AT ALL IT WILL BE A
DUSTING AT BEST.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL
SHOWING A BIG GRADIENT FROM THE COLDER NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH SHOULD APPROACH 20 THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES BUT THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE EAST DIGS DOWN
THROUGH ONTARIO...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER DOWN INTO THE REGION. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET
SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...BUT A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE FRONT
END OF THE HIGH WINDS WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER. WIND CHILLS
IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD GET DOWN TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA...DEPENDING ON EXACT CLEARING TRENDS AND HOW FAST TEMPS
DROP.

THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA
NOT GETTING ABOVE ZERO EVEN WITH SUN. WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING BUT COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME AREAS DOWN NEAR 25 BELOW
ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA WILL
DROP TO NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS IN THE WEST
WHERE SOUTH WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT SEEMS AT
THIS POINT IT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS COMES OUT LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT WITH
SOUTH WINDS STILL RATHER BREEZY SOME BLOWING SNOW COULD BE AN
ISSUE AT TIMES. WILL MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PERIOD SHOULD START OUT WITH
WARMING TEMPS AND SOME SNOW IN WARM ADVECTION BAND ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...NW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER WAVE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LOW VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE VALLEY AND NW/W CNTRL MN
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WHEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE WITH MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT. DVL WILL SEE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS
THROUGH 00Z...WITH LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS TO AS LOW AS 4 SM. CIGS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/HOPKINS
AVIATION...SPEICHER



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