Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241554
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NOT SEEING ANY STATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FA REPORTING LIGHT
SNOW ANYMORE SO WILL REMOVE ANY MORE MENTION THIS MORNING OVER
THERE. OTHERWISE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING FROM KMOT TO
KBIS WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND
NEW NAM12 KEEP ANY PCPN TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY...EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. EVEN THROUGH
THE NOON HOUR NOT EXPECTING ANY OF THE PCPN OUT WEST TO REACH OUR
WESTERN FA. THINKING IT WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO THE WESTERN FA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING SOME COOL ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
BUT TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE IN THE SW FOR MIXED PCPN. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS FOR THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHER ISSUE THIS MORNING IS SOME
FOG. THERE IS SOME UP AROUND LANGDON AND SOME ALONG THE CLEARING
LINE FROM KFSE TO KADC. WILL INSERT A MENTION OF FOG IN THESE
AREAS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MANY CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER WAVE TO AFFECT THE FA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE AND CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH TIMING AND LOCATION OF MAIN SNOW BAND WITH LATEST
SOLUTIONS TRENDING FARTHER WEST AND LATER ARRIVAL INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UTILIZED BLEND ALONG WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE.

FIRST WEAKER WAVE TO AFFECT MAINLY NW MN DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
SO FAR UPSTREAM CANADIAN RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
UNIMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH LIFT IS WEAK GFS CLIPS NE FA WITH LOWER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM 290K SURFACE AND CURRENTLY
LINING UP PRETTY WELL WITH CANADIAN RETURNS. FARTHER WEST COLUMN
GRADUALLY MOISTENS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING STRONGER
WAVE. LATEST SOLUTIONS SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FAR WEST
CLOSER TO 00Z. BY THIS TIME COLUMN LOOKS TO HAVE SUFFICIENTLY
COOLED SO THAT PRIMARY PHASE WILL BE -SN. WITH COOLING COLUMN
DURING THE DAY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY WILL BE MODEST BUT STILL ABOVE
AVERAGE.

-SN WILL CONTINUE SPREAD EAST TONIGHT WITH CURRENT SOLUTIONS
SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE VALLEY WEST.
GEM/NAM FARTHEST EAST WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEPING HIGHEST QPF IN
CENTRAL ND POSSIBLY CLIPPING WESTERN FA. WITH MODEL TRENDS AND
CURRENT SOLUTIONS LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
WILL BE. SINCE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE TONIGHT AND LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES/STATEMENTS AND
TRYING TO PIN POINT MAIN SNOW BAND. STILL LOOKING LIKE GENERAL 1-3
INCH ACCUMULATIONS.

LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WITH SNOW ENDING
ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY AM FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. MINIMAL
COOLING BEHIND THE LOW AND DEGREE OF CLEARING AND POTENTIAL SNOW
COVER WILL GOVERN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

THE NEXT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT. RESPECTABLE WARM
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP AND COULD SEE SOME RISING
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT SOLUTIONS SHOWING BEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
ACROSS THE NE FA.

SOME LINGERING -SN OVER THE FAR NE MONDAY OTHERWISE REGION WILL BE
DRY BREEZY AND MILD.

LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WHILE A
LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE
DOWNSTREAM WEST COAST RIDGE WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHORT WAVES
ARE QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN. SHORT WAVES
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT AND WARM ADVECTION
PRECIP THU NIGHT. THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
WILL BE PREFERRED.

HIGH TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE MAINLY
EAST. TEMPS DECREASED TWO TO THREE DEGREES WEST AND INCREASED IN THE
EAST FOR WED AND THU. TEMPS INCREASE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES FRI FROM
YESTERDAYS PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A VERY CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD WITH PLENTY OF
UPDATES POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE NORTHERN SITES. CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY VFR HOWEVER AS COLD FRONT ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER SAGS
SOUTHWARD LOWER CIGS AND VSBY IN BR FOLLOW IN WAKE OF FROPA. BY
AFTERNOON MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL BUT KFAR. SNOW
WILL SPREAD FROM DVL BASIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON SE TONIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER






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