Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 242339
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
639 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ERN ND AND THE RRV
AHEAD OF A COLD CORE MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER EDGING THROUGH
CNTRL ND ATTM. 0-2KM VORTICITY AND LAYERED CAPE HAVE BEEN ENUF FOR
WEAK TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ISOLATED PEA SIZED HAIL AND POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED COLD CORE FUNNEL THROUGH 01Z... BUT DIMINISHING FAIRLY
QUICKLY WITH NIGHTFALL.

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO PACKAGE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SNOW IN THE EAST AND SUNSHINE AND TSTMS IN THE WEST PART OF THE
FCST AREA. 500 MB UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST AND JUST NORTHWEST
OF MINOT. A FEW STORMS ASSOC WITH COLD POOL HAVE DEVELOPED AND
THAT AREA AS A NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO INDEX OF 3 PER SPC MESOPAGE
WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH. UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THREAT FOR
A FEW STORMS AND THREAT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS REMAINS
RIGHT NEAR SFC BOUNDARY WHICH RUNS FROM ROLLA TO DEVILS LAKE TO
BTWN VALLEY CITY AND FARGO TO WEST OF WAHPETON. SO THIS AREA TO BE
MONITORED.

OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTH WITH UPPER LOW
INTO NRN MN AND NOW ENDING IN FAR WRN MN. HIGHER ELEVATIONS DOING
THEIR THING AS 1 INCH OF WET SNOW HAS FALLEN IN THE OSAGE HILLS
BTWN PARK RAPIDS AND DETROIT LAKES TO ITASCA WITH WET SNOW ALSO
EAST THROUGH HUBBARD COUNTY AND INTO BEMIDJI AREA. THIS AREA TO
SEE WET SNOW TAPER OFF TO A LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SNOW MIX LATE
AFTN/EVE. WILL KEEP SOME POPS FOR MIX OR JUST LIGHT SNOW THRU THE
NIGHT IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FCST AREA. ANY TSTMS IN ND WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND GENERALLY CLEARER SKY DVL-
VALLEY CITY AREAS. THIS AREA MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AS WELL.

UPR LOW TO MOVE INTO NRN MN AND ELONGATE FRIDAY FROM NRN MN INTO
SE SASK. WILL KEEP PREV FCST IDEA OF SOME CLOUDS AND DIURNAL
SHOWERS NRN 1/2 OF FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AND SHOWER THREAT
SATURDAY MAINLY CNTRL ND. MAIN SFC LOW TO MOVE FROM COLORADO INTO
NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AND WITH IT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AREA
WIDE.

.LONG TERM... /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE KEY PHRASE FOR THIS LONG TERM WILL BE ACTIVELY WET.  A STRONG
CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS COUPLED WITH A FAIRLY OPEN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE ECMWF
IS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROF OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH A PRE-TROF
BAND OF HIGH QPFS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK
OUT DETAILS OF ANY BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...BUT ONCE AGAIN THE
BOTTOM LINE IS A WET WEEK AHEAD. ONE CHANGE TO THE PREV FCST IS
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN VS RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE THICKNESS VALUES ARE 550
OR GREATER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
BY WED...AND ANY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE CUT OFF BY WHAT
APPEARS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME WARMUP FOR WED AND THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SCT LOW TOPPED TSTMS WILL MOV ACROSS ERN ND AND THE RRV THROUGH
02Z WITH AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE INTO GFK-TVF THROUGH 04Z. IFR AND
MVFR CIGS TO BE A PROBLEM OVR MUCH OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. LOWEST
CIGS AND VSBYS ALG AND EAST OF A ROX- BJI-BRD LINE WILL SLOLY MOVE
EASTWARD... BUT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND APPROACHING MID
LEVEL COLD POOL WILL KEEP AT LEAST AN MVFR DECK IN PLACE ACROSS
ERN ND AND NWRN MN INTO MID FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE/SPEICHER
AVIATION...GUST






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