Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241749

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1249 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 931 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Main forecast concern today will be sky cover...expect west
central MN to become more cellular through the morning but north
of MN Hwy 10 most areas are currently clear. Will decrease sky
cover for all but southern tier of counties through mid-aftn.
Temps will be cooler over the southeast due to the morning clouds
but CONSSHORT for NW zones are also cooler than prev forecast.
Will need to monitor but for now will lean toward consistency due
to full solar and think the short blend solution may be a bit too
cool in this area.  Overall very little changes to daytime highs.

UPDATE Issued at 701 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Added patchy frost and patchy fog mainly over the MN side of the
Red river for early this morning. No other changes at his update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Upper level ridge axis extended from southern MAN to WY. Satellite loop
indicated cirrus was spilling over the ridge and over the
forecast area. Water vapor loop indicated upper level ow pressure
system was located over southern BC and southern ALTA with upper
level jet rounding the base of the trough. Upper trough will move
into southern SASK Wed night an rotate over southern SASK and
southern MAN through 12Z Sat.

Upper level low will send a cold front across the area Thu and produce showers.

Pocket of moist air around 850 hpa remains over the southeast
zones for today. Satellite indicated clouds continue to move to
the west over the southeast zones. Will add more clouds over the
southeast zones today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

During the holiday weekend, the models are in good agreement that a
strong mature low pressure system over Manitoba slowly meanders
eastward toward the Great Lakes region. This system will bring an
unsettled weather pattern to the Northern Plains as several rounds
of weak upper disturbances push through. Model confidence is low
regarding timing/location of these impulses, but they will
ultimately result in a mix of sun and clouds and some isolated light
showers in the area for Saturday afternoon/night, with better shower
coverage and perhaps a few storms Sunday through Monday night.
Additionally, conditions will be breezy for Sunday and Monday as the
surface low moves by to the east. By Tuesday, this system will be
over the Great Lakes region and rain chances will diminish as high
pressure begins to build into the Dakotas.

Temperatures will be near normal values with diurnal swings each day
through the weekend and into early next week. Highs will be in the
60s to lower 70s Saturday and Sunday, becoming slightly cooler
Monday. Lows will be in the 40s to lower 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conds with SCT-BKN VFR diurnal cu deck south of Hwy 200 this aftn
and southeast winds increasing.  Will lose cu deck aft sunset but
breezy winds to cont through the evening.  Front will move across area
near sunrise and may see some sct shra across northern valley...associated
cigs remaining VFR.




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