Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 312005
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AFTN CIGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER END OF THE MVFR RANGE WITH
SOME SPOTTY AREAS OF IFR CIGS. IFR CIGS GENERALLY IN THE 005-009
RANGE SO SHOULD LIFT INTO MVFR RANGE BY MID AFTN. MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO FAST IN SCATTERING SKIES OUT TONIGHT SO WILL HOLD ON TO
MVFR CIGS A BIT LONGER THAN MODELS SUGGEST...GENERALLY GOING VFR BY
MID EVENING AT ALL SITES EXCEPT BJI...WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER




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