Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 241000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FA AREA CURRENTLY AND
WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER EARLY TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS...42 KTS AT GFK. AS A RESULT
AN HOUR OR TWO OF REDUCED VSBYS WITH BLSN AND SUSPENDED ICE
CRYSTALS CAN BE EXPECTED. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE BEFORE MORNING
COMMUTE ACROSS THE METROS AREAS ALTHOUGH FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY HAVE
STILL SEE AN IMPACT IN THE 14Z TIME FRAME.

THE REST OF THE DAY TEMPS WILL BE FALLING AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS
AFTER A RESPITE MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING ENDING NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH NNW WINDS MIXING EFFICIENTLY WILL
SEE GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT WEAK SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO PUSH ACROSS WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRY ARCTIC
AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW ONLY THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWFA ANY
-SN CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND
CHILL CRITERIA LIKELY MET AS 1040MB PLUS SFC HIGH TRACKS ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 20 TO 25 C BELOW RANGE
WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL YIELD
WIND CHILL VALUES 30 TO 40 BELOW BY THURSDAY MORNING. LITTLE
RECOVERY THURSDAY AS SFC HIGH REMAINS WEST AND TEMP ADVECTION
REMAIN NEUTRAL. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS ON A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY...BEGINNING TO SHIFT ON
SATURDAY AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE CWA. THE MODEL BLEND
GIVES US SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN INTO THE AREA...BUT AS IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY
WITH THESE CLIPPER SYSTEMS THE QPF SIGNAL SEEMS WEAK. WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY...BUT WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS IT
SEEMS THAT THE COLDEST AIR WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER WESTWARD FOR MONDAY...WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FURTHER WEST HAN THE GFS. IT SEEMS THAT WE WILL GET SOME
MORE ARCTIC AIR AT SOME POINT AFTER THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
ALL DIFFER ON EXACTLY WHEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ANTICIPATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS DIMINISHING BY LATE IN
THE DAY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...TG






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