Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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841
FXUS63 KFGF 251751
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Still have a few showers along the Canadian border in northeast
North Dakota, lifting northeast. Some light showers are also
moving through the Aberdeen SD area, and these are moving
northeast too. Some of these light showers near Aberdeen should
continue moving into west central MN this afternoon. There could
still be some additional shower development along and east of the
Red River Valley this afternoon, so kept the low pcpn chances we
had going in these areas. The clouds have quickly filled in early
this afternoon, so for the rest of the afternoon there will be
more clouds than sun. Winds should be peaking from now through mid
afternoon, then they should also begin a slow decrease.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Expect the best chances for rain today in the Devils Lake basin and
along and north of US Highway 2 this morning as lower level dry air
gradually saturates under some weak upper impulses and a strong
850mb jet. Additionally small chances for a few light showers will
persist through the day and evening as these disturbances eject out
ahead of the main system, a strong stacked surface/upper low in
southern Saskatchewan. As this system drifts east into Manitoba, the
greater impact today will be breezy southeast winds at 15 to 25
mph and gusts to 35 mph, with the strongest winds in the
afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s today,
inhibited a bit by cloud cover.

For tonight, the surface low will move northeast into central
Manitoba, dragging a weak cold front through the forecast area from
west to east. Small chances of showers will continue along and ahead
of the front overnight. Winds will shift west behind the front,
which should pass the Red River Valley early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

For Friday and Saturday, the aforementioned system over Manitoba
slowly meanders eastward toward the Great Lakes region. With
west/northwest low level flow and forcing behind the front, the
latest model runs suggest mostly dry periods with a mix of clouds
and sun for Friday through Saturday morning. As a weak upper
disturbance moves around the main system Saturday afternoon and
night, slight chances for some isolated light showers return.
Temperatures will be near normal values through the weekend.

For Sunday through Wednesday, split flow over North America
consolidates into northwest flow aloft as short waves roll over
upper level ridge and carve out a trough over eastern North
America during the period. Longwave upper ridge over the west
coast will shift a little east into western North America this
period. A broad longwave trough over the Northern Plains will
sharpen and shift to eastern North America by the end of the
period. However operational models disagree and maintain a split
flow.

Upper level low pressure system forecast to be over western Ontario
Sun with short waves rotating around system. Diurnally driven
showers can also be expected for Sun through Tue. Showers will shift
east on Tue as upper low shifts east. An upper level trough over the
Aleutians will roll over the ridge. The upper low will move over the
forecast area about Mon and produce showers.

High temperatures were generally increased one to three degree for
Sun. Little change to Mon. High temps were decreased two to four
degrees for Tue and decreased one to two degrees for Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Wind speeds should peak from now through mid afternoon, then they
will begin a slow decrease. Models show them to be fairly low from
late evening into the early morning hours of Friday. Then they
will begin to switch to the west and increase again through the
day Friday. Models are hinting at some lower ceilings around KBJI
tonight, so kept the mention of an MVFR deck there.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JH/BP
AVIATION...Godon



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