Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250052

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
652 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Issued at 652 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The radar is overshooting a lot of the echoes, but the regional
map shows a dry slot moving into northeast South Dakota, where the
snow is ending and visibilities are improving. METARs show
visibilities from Fargo to Hillsboro over into west central
Minnesota down below a mile. So the heaviest snow rates are
occurring in these areas. So far have picked up a dusting in Grand
Forks, about 2 inches in the FM area, 2.5 in Lidgerwood, and 2
inches in Nimrod (Wadena Co). Not sure yet if the dry slot down in
northeast SD will limit some of the snow totals over west central
MN. Otherwise no other changes to the forecast at this point.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Fast moving system coming thru with its lift focused in the
500-700 mb layer. Little organized frontogenesis in the 850 mb
layer in our area. Water vapor shows vort into SW MN moving
northeast and model prog 700 mb low near Huron which will move ENE
toward Alexandria this evening. Main moisture area is east of the
700 mb low with heaviest snows now moving into central MN. But
north of the 700 mb low radars/obs shows mod/hvy snow moving into
far SE ND and WC MN. this area of snow will continue to lift north
and eventually east thru the evening with lighter intensity
snowfall spreading into the nrn RRV, far NW MN and possibly as far
west as Devils Lake for a brief time. Right now snow totals we
have had going seem reasonable based on all meso models, etc. So
no changes. Snow will end pretty fast overnight, ending 12-14z in
Baudette. West winds and a bit warmer Sunday. Expecting no serious
blowing snow issues behind this system though a bit gusty winds
from the west Sunday may cause some low level drifting/blowing in
some areas...but the areas that will get the heaviest snow will
see a bit lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

No significant weather impacts expected through the work week.
Overall a mild, near average week to end February with a few small
chances for light precipitation. For the first half of the week,
zonal flow aloft and a split jet stream yield dry weather for across
the Northern Plains. With increased sunshine for at least the first
half of the week and temperatures peaking near freezing, will likely
see increased snow melt.

Monday will be quite mild, with highs reaching at or just above
freezing at most locations. A clipper passes eastward through
southern Manitoba Monday, yielding a negligible chance of flurries
along the international border. Behind the clipper, high pressure
settles in through Wednesday, bringing more dry weather with highs
in the upper 20s to mid 30s and lows in the teens. For Wednesday
into Thursday, a Colorado Low traversing the Central Plains and Ohio
Valley wraps enough moisture back into the Northern Plains to yield
small chances for light precipitation in west central MN and
southern Red River Valley.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

The steadiest snow is in the KFAR/KGFK/KBJI/KTVF areas, with just
a little at KDVL. Generally expect conditions to remain about
where they are now through mid to late evening, when a slow
improvement should occur. Biggest thing by late Sunday morning
into the afternoon may be some drifting snow. Do not think this
will limit vsbys, but it may make concrete surfaces somewhat slick
in spots.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for NDZ052-

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for MNZ030-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for MNZ017-023-024-

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ029.



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