Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 202332
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST NEEDED. WEAK COOL FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH NORTHERN FA HOWEVER TO HAVE LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON THE FA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS/CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
CHANCES FOR PCPN ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT. AS
OF 245 PM THERE WERE A FEW CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA WHILE THE
CIRRUS HAD FADED ACROSS THE SOUTH. PRETTY CLEAR NIGHT EXPECTED
BUT FINALLY NO FROST/FREEZE ISSUES. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO THU. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A BIT
COOLER THU.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

WARMER FOR FRI. BY LATE FRI NIGHT THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS
THE FAR SW. OTHERWISE BETTER PCPN CHANCES ARRIVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BY SAT. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY SO WILL JUST
GO WITH SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE PERIOD...BUT
DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DETAILS. THE GFS IS MOST PROGRESSIVE
WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH...BRINGING PRECIP IN FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND DRYING THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
AND GEM ARE SLOWER ON BRINGING PRECIP IN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT HAVE A
FAIRLY WET MEMORIAL DAY. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP THE
POPS GOING THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING
A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE INTO MANITOBA WITH A GOOD COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD KNOCK TEMPS BACK A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

SOME SCT MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK COOL FRONT
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JR
AVIATION...VOELKER


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