Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141531
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
931 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 931 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Made some tweaks to temps as the eastern counties have quite a bit
of rising to do before they even get above the zero mark. However,
with warm air advection and west winds setting up today think we
should still reach the teens above zero in most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Split flow was across North America with the northern stream over
southern Canada and the southern stream over the central and
southern states.

Upper level trough over Ontario will move east today and keep the
area in northwest flow aloft through Sun morning. Flat upper level
ridge will move over the area Sun.

Water vapor indicated an upper trough off the west coast of BC will
move in from the west Mon afternoon on the northern stream. The
trough will interact with a trough moving northeast out of the
desert southwest.

Upper level trough off the Baja coast will move into southern WI by
12Z Tue. Very light snow may brush the far southeast zones Mon
afternoon and Mon night.

Temperatures will continue to moderate through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

There are some differences between the 00z operational models on
Tuesday. The GFS brings a trailing short wave through the northern
Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota, resulting in light snow
chances. The ECMWF/Canadian models do not show this short wave and
are dry, so will stick with this route for now. The same story goes
for Tuesday night and Wednesday, this time the ECMWF being the model
showing the stronger short wave and light pcpn. Even so, the ECMWF
would only have the light pcpn along the Canadian border. With the
other models looking dry, have gone that route as well, and will see
what later runs have in store.

Through the rest of the Thursday and Friday time frame, the weather
continues to look quiet. The bigger news will remain the warm temps.
The models continue to show 850mb temps rising above zero for most
locations through the entire long term period. How this translates
to surface temps remains to be seen, but guidance is showing highs
in the mid to upper 30s for Wednesday thru Friday. This will hinge
on cloud cover and winds of course, but at this time wind speeds
look to stay on the lower side. This could lead to fog formation
from melting snow during the day, which is always a challenge when
warm temps move in over the snowpack.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

VFR conditions were across the area. VFR conditions are expected for
today and tonight.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...Hoppes


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