Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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361
FXUS63 KFGF 211752
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Minor adjustments to cloud trends and winds otherwise current
forecast ok.

UPDATE Issued at 956 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

No changes necessary.

UPDATE Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

No changes for the morning update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Temperatures and if we will see any storms before sunset Sunday
will be the primary challenges for the short term.

Today should be fairly similar to yesterday, although with the
weak upper disturbance that brought clouds moving off and ridging
building in, there should be more sunshine. The surface low over
eastern Montana will be deepening, and although the windiest
conditions will be to our west, it should bring some fairly breezy
south winds to the western counties. Continued to keep highs in
the mid to upper 70s. Tonight should be similarly fairly quiet
with southeast winds keeping the boundary layer mixed and lows in
the 50s. The southeast winds will also bring some increasing
moisture, but at this point think most overnight stratus will stay
to our west.

By Sunday, the Northern Plains will be under southwesterly flow
aloft as a large upper trough digs into the western CONUS. The
surface trough axis will move eastward into western ND, and some
of the model soundings have winds approaching advisory criteria.
Will monitor for now, and just have winds in the 20 to 25 kt range
and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The NAM has CAPE values
approaching 1500 J/kg in some spots across our west by Sunday
afternoon. However, with the main lead shortwave not coming in
until Sunday night and the cold front still to the west Sunday
afternoon, just will keep minimal POPs in the Devils Lake Basin
through 00Z Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Sunday night through Monday night...Southwesterly flow aloft
continues and brings a fairly active pattern. The best chances for
precipitation seem to be on Sunday night as the surface trough and
cold front move into the Red River Valley. That boundary will move
into the eastern counties during the day on Monday and start to
wash out. However, there should be some continued focus for storm
development through Monday at least in the eastern counties. Some
break in convection is expected by Monday night so have POPs
tapering off. Temperatures will be slightly above seasonal
averages.

For Tuesday through Friday...Models remain consistent in depicting
southwest flow through the long term period. Therefore this is
shaping up to be a wetter period with chances for showers and
thunderstorms about every day. Determining any sort of detail in
regard to this is pretty tough this far out. At this point Tuesday
looks like the warmest day, with temperatures falling back closer to
normal for Wednesday through Friday. This seems reasonable with the
potential for quite a bit of cloud cover with the periodic showers
and thunderstorms expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

An h5 upper ridge aloft and surface high pressure pushing through
eastern MN attm will help to keep fair skies and light southerly
winds across northwest through central MN today and tonight. Through
eastern ND and the Red River Valley... expect VFR conditions with
few cumulus and gusty southerly winds today along with increasing
moderate southerly blayer flow tonight into forenoon sunday.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/Godon
AVIATION...Voelker



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