Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031456
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
956 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CLOUD COVER ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.
HOWEVER THERE IS MORE CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM OF WINNIPEG THAT LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL DROP INTO THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING
WIND GUSTS IN TO THE MID 20 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL PROGRESS DOWN INTO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN GUSTY INTO THE EVENING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CLOUD
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING SOUTH FROM ONTARIO
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH AS WELL...SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH TO THE
TUNE OF 20-25 MPH. THE PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE
60S IN MOST AREAS TODAY. THE DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT HAS RAISED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN THE REGION
AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE WEST SLOWLY WEST SEEING THE
WARMEST TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE 850 MB TEMPS WILL
SUPPORT UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY TO START THE
PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20C. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR -RA/TSRA.
THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REBOUNDS AND BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA BY LATE
MONDAY BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTH AND BE GUSTY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
COMBINATION OF NORTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND HUMIDITIES DROPPING AS LOW AS 20 TO
25 PERCENT...WARRANT ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL ND ZONES
AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE MINNESOTA ZONES. COORDINATION WITH FIRE
MANAGERS SUGGEST FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO SUPPORT RAPID FIRE
SPREAD UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>003-
     013>017-022>024-027>032-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
FIRE WEATHER...HOPKINS


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