Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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367
FXUS63 KFGF 231154 AAA
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
654 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Increased snow and liquid amounts for this morning to account for
potential for heavier precipitation over Benson, Eddy, Nelson,
and Griggs counties and lowered precipitation a bit in eastern
parts of band. Otherwise no significant changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

This morning the frontal boundary has moved south into South
Dakota, but additional mid level forcing will continue development
of rain/snow banding through the mid section of the forecast area
near Highway 2 to Interstate 94 this morning. While this forcing
becomes more intense this morning in that mid section, low level
dry air moving in from the north will counteract this, keeping
light to moderate intensity with coverage as a main band with
some scattered around it. This will likely result in an additional
inch or two of snow, but impacts will depend on whether this is
locally accumulating or melting as it reaches the ground. As the
relatively warm layer aloft remains near to below freezing this
morning, precipitation type will continue to remain a rain/snow
mix, locally dependent on low level moisture and temperatures.
Around mid day, expect rain/snow to taper off for a few hours then
gradually transition to light rain for the afternoon.

As mid level forcing works northward from the mid section of the
forecast area tonight and temperatures drop to near to below
freezing again, rain/snow mix will develop in the evening in north
of Highway 2, gradually turning to snow overnight. In the southern
half of the forecast area, rain will develop as forcing and
moisture supply increase as a result of an approaching system.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 441 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

On Monday, a surface low moves east from central South Dakota
toward central Minnesota, bringing in stronger moisture content
and better forcing. As warmer air moves north through the Red
River Valley Monday, most areas will see rain, and snow occuring in
most northern locations will transition to rain. Areas along and
south of Highway 2 will see mainly rain Monday with perhaps some
snow on the back side of the system late Monday night. Total
rainfall for those southern locations will be around a quarter of
an inch. The northward advance of warm air Monday will play a big
factor in terms of impacts for counties adjacent to the Canadian
border. If temperatures at these northernmost locations cannot
rise above freezing, moderate to heavy snow could be an issue as
liquid total amounts are expected to be one to three quarters of
an inch. At this point, this area will likely see an inch or two
of snow total from Sunday night to Monday night. However there is
potential for a narrow band of significantly heavier snow
especially near the Lake of the Woods area on Monday and Monday
night where temperatures will likely remain near or just below
freezing.

Tuesday through Saturday night will be cooler than end of April
normals with minimal impactful weather occurring. 500mb flow across
the CONUS will keep the main storm track south of the northern
plains with broad scale trough slowly progressing across the middle
of the country. Evolution of the 500mb trough varies in model
guidance with timing and intensity differences on the track of the
SFC lows across the central plains into the Great Lakes. As a result
light precip is possible across the far eastern areas Wednesday and
Thursday if northern members of the guidance verify. Otherwise SFC
high pressure over Ontario will bring cool and dry northeasterly
winds across the area for much of the week. Highs will be in the 40s
gradually moderating into the low 50s by Friday and Saturday. Slight
chance for precipitation returns by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions expected at GAF-GFK-TVF and areas north and east
through most of the day. For areas south of this line, MVFR and
IFR, with perhaps LIFR, cigs expected for much of the day with
the lowest cigs expected this morning associated with light snow
and rain in the area. Wind will be northeast, becoming east, at
10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this morning, becoming east
around mid day.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...BP



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