Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231752
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

STILL LOOKING AT SOME POSSIBLE SPRINKLES ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TODAY...BUT REMAINING SOUTH OF HWY 2. RAP 850MB-700MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS CLOUD SHIELD AND
USED FOR TIMING PURPOSES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S
(POSSIBLY 80F) NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH FULL SOLAR...WITH COOLER VALUES
NEAR 70F WITH CLOUDS. DID RAISE MAX TEMPS A BIT NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ISSUES WILL BE HOW FAR AND WHEN WILL THE PRECIP SPREAD NORTH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. LARGER UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH/N ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS..AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME MID CLOUDS IN THE
SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN. OF INTEREST IS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS IN
THE SIOUX FALLS AREA. HRRR AND A FEW OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS DO
BRING A FEW SPITS OF PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO WCNTRL MN (ALEX-ST
CLOUD AREA) LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. TO BLEND WITH WFO MPX I
DID INSERT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OTTER TAIL AND WADENA COUNTIES LATE
MORNING INTO MID AFTN. BASED ON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH ANY SHOWERS
WILL NOT REACH THE SD/ND BORDER AREA TIL LATE THIS AFTN AND
TRIMMED POPS ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY. TONIGHT WILL SEE A SHOWER RICK
IN THE SOUTH BUT STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SLOWING DOWN ANY NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF MOISTURE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE DEEPER MOISTURE START TO MOVE INTO SE ND AND THEN
SPREAD NORTH DURING THE DAY. THUS HIGHER POPS...MOSTLY SOUTHERN
FCST AREA. GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER THAN ECMWF/GEM WHICH KEEP
DVL-GFK AREA DRY THRU SUN EVE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

RAIN CHANCES SPREAD NORTH SUN NIGHT WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AS UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVE FROM SOUTHERN SD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MN. HIGH PRESSURE DOES REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND SOME
MODELS WANT TO KEEP FAR NW FCST AREA DRY EVEN MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
WENT WITH SUPERBLEND OF MODELS AND IDEA OF CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY SE 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...BUT VERY WEAK...SO DID KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
SUN NIGHT THRU MON IN THE GRIDS. PRECIP BEGINS TO MOVE EAST MON
NIGHT. AS FOR HOW MUCH RAINFALL....MOST AREAS IN THE ONE HALF TO
THREE QUARTERS INCH RANGE GFK SOUTH AND EAST AND LESS NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
NOT A LOT OF AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ALTHOUGH THEY DO ALL SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER FEATURES BECOME OUT OF
PHASE WHEN COMPARING ECMWF AND GFS...UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY`S
SOLUTION. ECMWF HAS LONGER WAVES WITH MORE OF A SOUTHWEST FLOW MID
WEEK WHILE GFS HANGS ON TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE KEY TO COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS.
LATEST EXTENDED SUPERBLEND SOLUTION CONTINUES WITH POPS COVERING
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE TIME...ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO
SMOOTH OUT MINUTE AREAS OF PCPN/NO PCPN WITHIN THE FGF CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CONTINUE WITH VFR CIGS/VSBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN FA REACHING FAR
EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER


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