Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 100450
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

PRECIP NOW ALL EAST OR SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND WINDS
DIMINISHING NICELY. LOW TEMPS ON TRACK WITH FCST LOWS IN THE 30S.
HIGH CLOUDS STILL PRESENT SOUTHERN 1/2 OF FCST AREA AND WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE SRN
ND-WCNTRL TONIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES REQUIRED FROM WHAT WAS
ALREADY DONE WITH PREV UPDATES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH SOME THERMAL FIELD AND
PTYPE ISSUES LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE GFS SEEMS A BIT TOO COLD
AND AN OUTLIER FOR SAT...WHICH WOULD GIVE MAINLY SNOW. WE PREFER
THE ECMWF/NAM/GEM BLEND SINCE IT IS MID APRIL AND THE NORTHERN
STORM TRACK MAKES MORE SENSE.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLY GUSTING TO NEAR 50
MPH NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS. THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING...AND
EXPECT A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. FORCING IS STRONG ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND
STRONG JET STREAK...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH COOLER TEMPS AS 850MB TEMPS
COOL TO AROUND 0C. IT SHOULD STILL BE AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS
AND THE SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

FOR FRIDAY...IT WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE SOME SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW...WILL NOT MENTION
PRECIP WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH WESTERLY SFC FLOW.

FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...A MORE ENERGETIC BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA OF RAIN
AND/OR SNOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. THE GFS IS VERY BULLISH AND
COLD WITH PRECIP...AND FOR NOW PREFER THE WARMER AND FURTHER NORTH
ECMWF/NAM. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR MOST
AREAS ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 0.25 INCHES OF QPF
FOR MOST AREAS...SO IT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACT ON
CURRENT FLOOD PRODUCTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...12 UTC GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BOTH SHOWING A TRANSITION TO SHARP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AS A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES ROTATE AROUND A BROAD LOW PARKED ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. PRECIP CHANCES SEEM RELATIVELY MINOR AND RESOLVING THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INDIVIDUAL WEAK WAVES IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR
OUT. WILL FOLLOW ALL BLEND GUIDANCE WHICH SPLASHES THE REGION WITH
20-30 POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY. OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
BIGGER CHANGE WILL BE A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
WAKE OF SATURDAY/S COLD FRONT. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES REMAIN STUCK
FROM -6 TO -12 C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S EACH DAY AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 20S. THESE
VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW MID-APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR SCATTERED CIRRUS
NORTH TO BROKEN CIRRUS SOUTH THROUGH DAYBREAK THEN SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY DAYTIME BROKEN AT TIMES...THEN BROKEN MID
CLOUDS THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL GET A LITTLE GUSTY FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THURSDAY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT WED APR 9 2014

SNOWMELT ACROSS THE AREA IS CAUSING STAGES TO RISE ON THE MAINSTEM
RED RIVER...MINNESOTA AND NORTH DAKOTA TRIBUTARIES.

A NEW FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE BUFFALO RIVER AT HAWLEY. THE
RIVER THERE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE TO A LEVEL JUST ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THE RED RIVER...EAST GRAND FORKS AND OSLO ARE FORECAST TO GO
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH OSLO FORECAST TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
THE DEGREE OF FLOODING ON THE RED RIVER IS DEPENDENT ON TOTAL SNOW
MELT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ICE JAMS ARE COMMON AROUND OSLO AND
RIVER LEVELS CAN RISE RAPIDLY DURING ICE JAM EVENTS. EXPECT RIVER
LEVELS AT THESE FORECAST POINTS TO CREST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE FOREST RIVER AT MINTO AND THE PARK RIVER AT GRAFTON...SNOW
MELT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH RIVER LEVELS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MINTO IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND GRAFTON TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE. WATER IS REPORTED TO BE FLOWING OUT OF THE HOMME DAM
SPILLWAY...AND RIVER STAGES WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WITH UPDATES ISSUED AS NEEDED.

RIVER STAGES ARE RISING ON THE SNAKE RIVER NEAR WARREN AND ALVARADO.
SOME ICE JAMMING HAS OCCURRED NEAR WARREN AND PUSHED THE STAGE ABOVE
MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...A CHECK OF THE RIVERS SHOW THAT WATER
IS NOW FLOWING FREELY IN THE CHANNEL...AND ICE JAMMING IS NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE FURTHER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME...THE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD ALVARADO WHERE THE RIVER LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
FARM FIELDS NEAR THE RIVER...AND URBAN AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
IMPACTED FOR NOW.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WALSH COUNTY. AREA DITCHES
ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN UP AND ALLOW FIELD RUNOFF TO MOVE INTO AREA
WATERWAYS. AS A RESULT WATER IS APPROACHING...OVERTOPPING AND
CLOSING MANY COUNTY ROADS UPSTREAM OF MINTO AND GRAFTON. COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS REPORTED THAT MANY COUNTY AND TOWNSHIP
ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
SOME TOWNS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...GRAFTON...
MINTO...PARK RIVER...ARDOCH...CONWAY...EDINBURG AND FORDVILLE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/ROGERS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
HYDROLOGY...GODON







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