Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 192345
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

No changes to the going forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Dry easterly flow will continue tonight and stop any north
advancement of light rain into our forecast area until near
11-12z. The timing of light rain moving north will need to be
watched for adjustments. But often models overdo rainfall
spreading north in dry flow out of a high. Will likely have a
longer period of virga or rain on radar but not at the ground on
the leading edge. High clouds tonight, thinnest in the far north,
where lows in the mid to upr 30s psbl. Patchy frost was mentioned
in far NW fcst area.

Saturday will see rain advance north...reaching the far northern
areas toward 00z. Temperatures a challenge as areas in rain more
of the day will stay in the 40s vs warmer mid 50s in non-rain
areas with some low 60s in far NW fcst area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Upper low to move into central Minnesota Saturday night. ECMWF
continues to be the most wet but will side with a bit drier soln
as deeper moisture from this system will be cut off due to tstms
in the ohio valley. Light rain/sprinkles/clouds to continue into
Sunday for most. Clouds and lingering very light precip at times
into Sun night and Monday.

Monday Night through next Friday...
Rain chances will come to an end after Monday night as the upper
trough swings through the region. Drier air will then move into
the region for Tuesday...with highs rebounding a bit in most
areas. The warm up will continue through Wednesday and likely into
Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the area. The new ECMWF is
trying to bring a strong upper low through the region by as early
as Thursday, which would result in a much cooler and wetter
Thursday compared to its 00Z run and the 12Z GFS. Will need to
watch for future trends on this late week system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Cirrus clouds continue to overspread the area and conditions will
remain VFR for at least the first half of the period. Some lower
ceilings will start moving into the southern forecast area
tomorrow morning along with rain, but at this point there is
inconsistency if they will be lower VFR or MVFR. Will include
some 3000 ft ceilings at KFAR tomorrow afternoon but will keep the
rest of the sites firmly in the VFR range. Rain will move
northward through tomorrow morning and afternoon. Just have a VCSH
mention at KFAR and KBJI for now, but will adjust and add the
more northern TAF sites as timing becomes more clear. Winds will
stay mostly from the east at under 12 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...Knutsvig/Riddle
AVIATION...JR


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