Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 260532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

CLEAR HOLES STILL PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST AND TIMING TOOL GETS THEM
INTO THE NORTHWEST FA AROUND 10Z OR SO. BEEN TOUGH GETTING ANY SUN
AROUND HERE FOR NEARLY THE LAST WEEK OR SO...AND WILL HAVE TO SEE
IF THIS ACTUALLY GETS HERE. OTHERWISE STILL HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW BRUSHING THE FAR SOUTHEAST FA. EXPECT THIS TO BE GONE BY
MORNING. WILL LEAVE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES OUT FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT AS HAVE NOT SEEN ANY METARS REPORTING ANYTHING.
REST OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLD AIR OVER SASK WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND FRI AND
BRUSH THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL BE TEMPERED FRI NIGHT AND SAT OR AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A STRONG SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS MAN AND ONTARIO SAT AND SUN AND IN ITS WAKE WILL
SEND THE COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

RADAR SHOWING A FEW WEAK ECHOES THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW REPORTS
OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WILL ADD FLURRIES FOR THIS EVENING. 700 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS WAS LOCATED OVER SD AND THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY
AND SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST FRI MORN. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
WEDGE OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 500 HPA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY WEDGE SHIFTS SOUTH FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
WILL LOWER POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER FOR TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE SAT NIGHT AND SUN BUT WILL BE VERY LOW
QPF.

HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY RAISED A DEGREE OR SO FOR FRI AND SAT AND
DECREASE A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

MID RANGE GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN 1050-1060
MB DESCENDING UPON NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
WILL EFFICIENTLY KEEP PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH MID WEEK...SUPPRESSING IT OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO CENTRAL PLAINS. LACK OF/MINIMAL SNOW COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
FIGURING OUT TEMPERATURE REGIME THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES PLUNGING TO NEAR THE 500 DM MARK FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WOULD SUGGEST NEAR ZERO TO POSITIVE SINGLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES.
BIAS CORRECTED TEMP GRIDS ARE TRENDING WARMER SEEMINGLY ADJUSTING TO
LACK OF SNOW COVER WHICH WOULD BE INCLUDED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE GRIDDED/STATISTICAL OUTPUT. FORECAST STILL HAS SOME MARGINALLY
SUB ZERO HIGHS ALONG NORTHERN TIER MONDAY...TRANSITIONING TO MID AND
UPPER TEENS BY WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS TO ADDRESS SHORT WAVE TO RING IN THE NEW
YEAR...FOLLOWED BY AN END OF WEEK COOL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

HAVE STUCK WITH THE STATUS QUO AT THE TAF SITES WITH SOME INCREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AGAIN FRI MORNING. SOME SCATTERING OUT MAY REACH
KDVL BY MID TO LATE MORNING. NOT SURE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL GET SO
ONLY MENTIONED THE SCATTERING OUT GETTING TO KGFK BY LATER
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATER SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR
THESE TRENDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...GODON





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